Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – Week 2 NFL Pick

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chiefs at jags pick
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The Jaguars look to move to 2-0 facing the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs, who were upset in their first game.

Even with an opening loss and on the road the Chiefs are the betting favorites in this AFC clash posted at -3.5 with a total of 51. The public has been backing Kansas City as they opened as a 2.5-point favorite and as of Thursday morning they are at -3.5.

In their opener last Thursday night, the Chiefs were at home losing to the Detroit Lions 21-20. KC failed to cover as a 4.5-point favorite with the total going Under.

In the Jags first game they were on the road and beat the Indianapolis Colts 31-21. They covered the spread as a 3.5-point favorite and the total went Over.

The Chiefs beat the Jaguars twice last season including in the playoffs.

They’re Back, Probably

Last week the Chiefs really missed two of their stars in Travis Kelse and Chris Jones. Jones, who had 15.5 sacks last season, signed a one-year deal with the team and Kelse, who is the best tight end in the game and has over 1,000 receiving yards in seven straight seasons, is likely back from a knee injury.

In the loss to the Lions the Chiefs’ offense was less than dynamic and they were outgained 368 yards to 316 yards. Patrick Mahomes passed for 226 yards with two TD and a pick but really missed Kelse and WR Kadarius Toney dropped a few passes.

One issue that may hurt KC on the season is that they lack a legit run game and that was highlighted in their loss to Detroit. Mahomes was the leading rusher with 45 yards and the RB duo of Isiah Pacheco and Clyde Edwards-Helaire only combined for 45 yards averaging 2.9 yards per carry and 3.7 yards per carry respectively.

Mahomes and company will be facing a young and hungry Jags’ defense that held the Colts to 280 total yards and stuffed the run holding them to only 65 rushing yards.

Picking off Where They Left Off

Last season the Jags won their last five games, won a playoff game, and played the eventual champion Chiefs close in the playoffs and started this season well beating the Colts on the road.

The Jax defense played well and outgained Indy 342 yards to 280 yards.

Trevor Laurence passed for 241 yards with 2 TD and 1 INT and Calvin Ridley, who missed the previous season, had a solid game for his new team leading the way with 101 receiving yards and a TD.

The Jags rushed for 105 yards in the Indy win with Travis Etienne Jr. rushing for 77 yards averaging a respectable 4.7 yards per carry.

Jax had four sacks in the win over the Colts with Josh Allen having three of them and will face a Chiefs’ offensive line that did not give up any sacks in their Week 1 loss.

Laurence will be up against a KC defense that gave up 250 passing yards and 118 rushing yards. The Chiefs lacked a pass rush that only had one sack but Jones is back and ready to go and will be a handful for the Jags O-line.

Trends

Last season the Jags covered the spread in their playoff game facing the Chiefs and in the regular season the game was a pick. Last season in each of the games KC was a 10-point favorite.

Last season the Chiefs were a great betting team on the road at 7-2 ATS and the Jags were a legit home betting team at 6-2 ATS.

Jax was a perfect 5-0 ATS last season as a home underdog.

Our Pick – Jaguars +3.5

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