Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots – Week 2 NFL Betting Analysis

dolphins at patriots pick
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The Patriots look to get their first win of the season in their first AFC East game facing a Dolphins team that won in a thriller in their season opener.

While the Dolphins are on the road, they are the betting favorite posted at -3 with the total sitting at 47. The public has backed the fish, ok mammals, in this one as Miami opened as a 2-point favorite and are a 3-point favorite as of Thursday morning.

In their first game the Dolphins were on the road and beat the L.A. Chargers 36-34. They covered the spread as a 3-point underdog and the total went Over.

The Patriots hosted the defending NFC champion Eagles in their opener losing 25-20 where they failed to cover as a 3.5-point underdog and the total went Over.

Last season these teams split the two games facing each other with each winning at home.

Tua Lights Up the Bolts

In their opening win over the Chargers Tua Tagovailoa lit it up passing for 466 yards, the fourth most ever in a season opener, with three TD and one INT.

The Dolphins outgained the Chargers 536 yards to 433 yards and they won despite only rushing for 70 yards and committing two turnovers and not forcing any.

Tyreek Hill stated before the season he wants to reach the 2,000-yard season total and got off to a good start with 215 receiving yards and two TD. Jaylen Waddle had 78 yards and three other players had at least 40 receiving yards.

Tua did most of the work, as Miami’s run game struggled and Raheem Mostert led the way with only 37 rushing yards and averaged 3.7 yards per carry.

Tua will be facing a New England defense that played pretty well in their loss to the Eagles only giving up 251 total yards and had three sacks.

Can’t Climb Back

In their loss to the Eagles the Patriots gave up 16 points in the first quarter and while they only allowed nine more points the rest of the game the offense could not overcome the early deficit.

The Pats had 382 yards of total offense but they committed two turnovers, forcing one, and only rushed for 76 yards.

Mac Jones had a busy day going 35-54 for 316 yards with three TD and one INT. He spread the wealth with five players with at least 33 receiving yards with Kendrick Bourne, who had two TD, and Rhamondre Stevenson leading the way with 64 yards each.

Ezekiel Elliot’s New England debut was unspectacular rushing seven times for 29 yards and Rhamondre Stevenson struggled only picking up 25 yards on 12 carries.

Look for Bill Belichick to call a lot of run plays in this game facing a Miami run defense that gave up 233 rushing yards to the Chargers.

The Pats home win over the Dolphins came late last season where Tagovailoa did not play.


The Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last five games facing the Pats.

In the Dolphins last nine games the total has gone Over eight times.

Last season the Patriots failed to cover the spread in all three of their games where they were the home underdog. Overall, the Pats were 3-5 ATS at home last season.

 Our Pick – Patriots +3

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