Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills – Week 4 NFL ATS Pick – 10-1

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In an early and important AFC East matchup in northern New York the 2-1 Bills host the undefeated Dolphins.

The Bills are a 2.5-point favorite in this division clash with a total of 54 points at wagerweb sportsbook. The public has bet this game even so far, as the Bills opened as a 2.5-point favorite and that is what they remain as of Thursday morning.

In their last game the Dolphins were at home and nearly made history in scoring the most points ever in a 70-20 rout over the winless Denver Broncos. Obviously, Miami covered the spread as a 6-point favorite and the total went Over. Not only have the Dolphins won all three of their games but they have covered in all of them as well.

The Bills were on the road in their last game and they laid a 37-3 beat down on the Washington Commanders. Buffalo covered as a 5-point favorite and the total went Under and the team has covered the spread in their last two games.

Last season the Bills beat the Dolphins in two of three meetings including beating them at home in the playoffs.

The Dolphins have lost their last seven road games against the Bills.

Could Have Made History

In their 70-20 thrashing over the Broncos last week the Dolphins had the chance to break the record with a field goal late in the game but head coach Mike McDaniel decided against it. Miami racked up 726 total yards, including 350 rushing yards, and forced three turnovers while not committing any.

In the Denver win Tua Tagovailoa passed for 309 yards with four TD, Tyreek Hill had 157 receiving yards and a TD, and rookie third-round pick De’VonAchaner blew up for 203 rushing yards and two TD.

Miami ranks first in the NFL in points per game, passing yards per game, and rushing yards per game.

Tagovailoa ranks first in the league in QBR and has only been sacked once in three games. Hill ranks second in the league in receiving yards and is averaging 16.5 yards per catch. Achane is joined in the backfield by Raheem Mostert, who leads the team with 240 rushing yards, had 82 rushing yards in the last game, and is averaging an impressive 5.9 yards per carry.

The dynamic Dolphins’ offense will be facing a Buffalo defense that shut down the Commanders last week and ranks second in the NFL in points allowed per game. Overall, Buffalo ranks third in the league defending the pass and 14th defending the run.

The Dolphins lit up the scoreboard last week even with second leading WR Jaylen Waddle out with an injury and he is listed as questionable to face the Bills.

Steamrolling in the Nation’s Capital

In the Bills win in Washington DC in their last game they did not rack up a ton of yards (386) but had balance (218 passing yards 168 rushing yards) and forced five turnovers while only committing one. Josh Allen passed for 218 yards with a TD and a pick, Stefon Diggs had 111 receiving yards, and James Cook led the way with 98 rushing yards averaging 6.5 yards per carry.

Buffalo ranks second in the NFL in ppg (30.3 ppg), 12th in passing yards per game, and seventh in rushing yards per game.

Allen (728 yards 5 TD 4 INT) ranks tied for sixth in the league in QBR and was not sacked last week after being sacked seven times in the first two games. Cook (267 yards) does not have a TD yet but is averaging an impressive 6.1 yards per carry.

While the Dolphins offense has been on fire their defense has not. They rank 21st in the NFL in points allowed per game and only rank 20th and 24th in pass and run defense, respectively.

Betting Trends

The Bills are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games facing the Dolphins.

The Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last five games facing teams from the AFC East.

The Dolphins are 6-0 ATS in their last six games.

The Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.

In the last 17 games between these teams the total has gone Over 12 times.

Our Pick Bills -2.5

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