Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Week 9 Pick

103
Dolphins at Chiefs Pick
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In an AFC matchup across the pond between two 6-2 teams the Kansas City Chiefs face off with the Miami Dolphins.

This game will be held in Frankfurt, Germany and oddsmakers have the Chiefs as a slight 1.5-point favorite with a total of 50.5. The public has been backing Miami in this matchup, as they opened as a 2.5-point underdog and as of Thursday are a 1.5-point dog.

The Dolphins got over their second loss of the season with a 31-17 home win over the New England Patriots in their last game. They covered the spread as a 7.5-point favorite and they have covered in three of their last four games.

The Chiefs had their six-game win streak snapped in their last game with a rather shocking 24-9 road loss to the Denver Broncos. KC came nowhere near covering as a 7-point favorite and they had covered the spread in their previous three games.

On the season the Dolphins are 6-2 ATS with an Over/Under record of 5-3 and the Chiefs are 5-3 ATS with an O/U record of 2-6.

These teams have not met since the 2020 season.

Flipping the Switch

After losing to the Philadelphia Eagles 31-17 the Dolphins won by the same score in their last game in the 31-17 win over the Patriots. Miami outgained New England 390 yards to 218 yards and held the Pats to 1-9 on third down.

In the win over the Pats Tua Tagovailoa passed for 324 yards with three TD and one INT, Raheem Mostert rushed for 46 yards, and Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle each had a TD and combined for 233 receiving yards.

Tua (2.,416 yards 18 TD 7 INT), who leads the NFL in passing yards and ranks fifth in QBR, leads a Miami offense that ranks first in the league in scoring (33.9 ppg) and first in passing and rushing yards per game.

Tyreek Hill is, so far, making good on his stated goal of breaking the receiving yardage record in a season with 1,014 yards and 8 TD, and in the last four games has a TD in each where he has averaged 136 yards per game.

The Dolphins are a little banged up and Mostert and CB Jalen Ramsey are each listed as questionable and Waddle is listed as probable.

Tua and company will be facing a KC defense that ranks second in points against (16.1 ppg), second in pass defense, and 19th in run defense.

Turnovers Aplenty

In their 24-9 loss to the Broncos in their last game the Chiefs committed five turnovers and only forced one. They outgained Denver 274 yards to 240 yards, only rushed for 62 yards, and gave up 153 rushing yards.

In the Denver loss Patrick Mahomes passed for 240 yards with no TD and two picks and lost a fumble, Isiah Pacheco rushed for 50 yards, and Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice combined for 114 receiving yards.

The KC offense has not been the dynamic unit this season like in the past ranking 12th in scoring (23.4 ppg), third in passing yards per game, and 21st in rushing yards per game.

Mahomes (2,257 yards 15 TD 8 INT) still ranks second in the NFL in QBR but does have four INT, to go with five TD, in the last three games.

Kelce leads the team with 583 receiving yards and had 303 yards in two games before only 58 yards in the last game. It was a little surprising that the Chiefs did not get a WR before the trade deadline, as they have a young and inexperienced WR corps that has not been getting it done.

While the Dolphins’ offense has been great the same cannot be said about their defense. They only rank 25th in points against (25.5 ppg), 16th in pass defense, and 17th in run defense.

Betting Trends

The Chiefs have an Under record of 4-0 in their last four games.

The Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.

The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.

The Dolphins are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

The Dolphins are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

The Dolphins have an Over record of 4-1 in their last five games facing a team with a winning record.

OUR PICK – Chiefs -1

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