Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals – Week 9 NFL Pick

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Bills at Bengals Pick ATS
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The Bengals have won three in a row and host a Bills team they beat in the playoffs on the road last season.

The Bengals are a slight 1.5-point favorite in this AFC clash with the total sitting at 49.5. So far, the public has backed Buffalo, as they opened as a 2.5-point underdog and as of Thursday are a 1.5-point dog.

The 5-3 Bills have won two of their last three games and in their last one were at home and beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24-18. Buffalo failed to cover as a 10-point favorite and they have failed to cover the spread in their last four games.

The 4-3 Bengals were on the road in their last game in an impressive 31-17 win over the San Francisco 49ers. They covered the spread as a 4.5-point underdog and they have covered in their last three games.

On the season the Bills are 3-5 ATS with an O/U record of 3-5 and the Bengals are 3-3-1 ATS with an O/U record of 3-4.

Holding On

In the win over the Bucs the Bills were up 24-10 late but gave up a TD and won after a Tampa Bay Hail Mary in the end zone was not caught. The Bills outgained the Bucs 427 yards to 302 yards, were 7-13 on third down, and had the game’s only turnover.

Josh Allen passed for 324 yards with two TD and an INT in the win over Tampa, James Cook rushed for 67 yards, and three players had at least 70 receiving yards.

Allen (2,165 yards 17 TD 8 INT) leads an offense that ranks fourth in the league in scoring (27.8 ppg), fourth in passing yards per game, and 14th in rushing yards per game. He is a little banged up but will play in the game, leads the NFL in QBR, and has two TD and a pick in each of the last four games.

Buffalo has only faced two teams that currently have a winning record and two of their three losses have come on the road.

Impressive Win

The Bengals were impressive in their last game in the 31-17 road win over the 49ers where they were outgained (460 yards to 400 yards), but forced two turnovers and did not commit any, and only had one penalty.

In the win last week in San Fran, Joe Burrow had his best game of the season going 28-32 for 283 yards and three TD and no INT. Joe Mixon paced the run game with 87 yards and a TD and Ja’Marr Chase had 100 receiving yards and a TD.

Cincy only ranks 24th in the league in scoring averaging 18.7 ppg but in their three-game win streak have averaged 27.3 ppg. They rank 23rd in the league in passing yards per game and 29th in rushing yards per game.

Burrow (1,513 yards 10 TD 4 INT) only ranks 18th in QBR but has played well as of late and in the last three games has eight TD and only two picks. Chase (656 yards 4 TD) has at least 100 receiving yards in three of the last five games.

Burrow has been sacked three times in each of the last four games. That is a concern, as the Cincy offensive line will face a Buffalo pass rush that has the second most sacks in the league.

The Bills have been solid on the defensive side of the ball ranking third in points against (17 ppg), 10th in pass defense, and 22nd in run defense.

Betting Trends

The Bills have an Under record of 9-2 in their last 11 road games.

The Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last four games.

The Bills are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.

The Bengals have an Under record of 10-4

The Bengals are 10-3-2 ATS in their last 15 home games.

The Bengals are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games facing a team with a winning record.

 

OUR PICK – BENGALS -1.5