Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Week 3 NFL Pick

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eagles at bucs pick
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In the Prime-Time Sunday night game the surprising Buccaneers head to the City of Brotherly Love to take on the defending NFC champion Eagles.

Not a big surprise that the Eagles are a 5-point favorite in this NFC clash with a total of 46 points. However, it is a little surprising that the public has really backed the Bucs, as they opened as a 6.5-point underdog and as of Friday morning are a 5-point dog.

In their last game the Eagles moved to 2-0 on the young season with a 34-28 home win over the Minnesota Vikings. The game was a Pick with them favored by six points and the total went Over and the Eagles covered the spread in their season opener.

The Bucs also moved to 2-0 in their last game with a 27-17 home win over the Chicago Bears. The total went Over and for the second straight games they covered the spread.

These teams have not met since the NFC Wild Card game in the 2021 playoffs.

It is interesting that both teams’ opponents this season are winless after two games.

Turnovers are Key

In their win over the Vikings last Thursday night, they forced four turnovers and only committed one. They outgained Minnesota 430 yards to 376 yards. While they gave up 346 passing yards, they killed in on run defense only giving up 28 rushing yards and forcing four fumbles.

Jalen Hurts passed for 183 yards with a TD and a pick and the big stars on offense were RB D’Andre Swift and WR DeVonta Smith, who had 175 rushing yards and 131 receiving yards respectively.

The run game has fueled the Philly offense so far on the young season ranking second in the NFL in rushing yards per game and only 29th in passing yards per game.

With how the Eagles’ offense has been led by the run this matchup bodes well for Tampa Bay, as they rank third in the league in run D and only 24th in pass D.

Not Spectacular but Solid

Baker Mayfield signed a one-year deal with the Bucs and won the QB battle in training camp and while he has not been spectacular, he has been solid. He has passed for 490 yards with three TD and has not been picked off, has only taken one sack, and ranks 10thin the league in QBR.

In the win over the Bears, Mayfield passed for 317 yards with a TD, Rachaad White rushed for 73 yards and a TD, and Mike Evans had a big game with 171 receiving yards and a TD.

Mayfield has been good at limiting turnovers and now faces a Philly D that has forced six of them in the first two games. Baker may get a lot of pass attempts in this game, as the Eagles only rank second-to-last in the NFL in pass defense but first in run defense. However, they have four sacks and look for them to bring the pass rush hard on Sunday night.

Trends

The Eagles have an Under record of 11-4 in their last 15 games as a favorite.

The Eagles are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.

The Bucs are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 home games.

The Bucs have an Over record of 9-4 in Buccaneers last 13 vs. a team with a winning record.

The Bucs are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Our Pick – Bucs +5

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