Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers – Week 18 NFL Pick

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packers bears pick
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The Green Bay Packers need win and help to make the playoffs, as they host their old rival in the Chicago Bears.

The Packers come into this huge NFC North clash as a 3-point favorite with a total of 45. The public has been betting this game even, as Green Bay opened as a 3-point favorite and have remained there as of Thursday.

The Bears (7-9) have won four of their last five games and in their last one they were at home and beat the Atlanta Falcons 37-17. They covered as a 2.5-point favorite and they have covered the spread in five of their last six games including their last two.

The Packers (8-8) won their second in a row in their last game in a 33-10 road win over the Minnesota Vikings. Green Bay easily covered as a 1-point favorite and they had failed to cover the spread in their previous three games.

In the first game of the season these two teams met in Chicago where the Packers beat the Bears 38-20.

On the season the Bears are 8-6-2 ATS with an O/U record of 8-7-1 and the Packers are 8-8 ATS with an O/U record of 10-6.

To Move On or Not

The big question for the Bears, as the off-season approaches, is whether to keep QB Justin Fields. While only ranking 22nd in QBR he leads the Bears with 630 rushing yards and has four TD and three INT over the last four games where he has run the ball well.

In the win over the Falcons, the Bears outgained them 432 yards to 307 yards and forced four turnovers while not committing any. Fields passed for 268 yards with a TD and no INT and rushed for 45 yards, Khalil Herbert rushed for 124 yards and a TD, and D.J. Moore had 159 receiving yards and a score.

On the season Chicago ranks 16th in scoring (21.9 ppg) and while only ranking 27th in passing yards per game they rank second in rushing yards per game.

Herbert (583 yards 2 TD) has at least 112 rushing yards in each of the last two games but is nicked up and listed as questionable to face the Packers. Lead WR Moore (1,300 yards 8 TD) is also listed as questionable.

The Bears’ offensive unit will face a Packers’ defense that ranks 14th in the NFL in points against (21.3 ppg), 11th against the pass, and 28th against the run.

Make it Easy

There are a few scenarios where the Packers could make the playoffs with a loss but the simple one is if they win this game, they are in.

In their 33-10 blowout win over the Vikings they outgained them 470 yards to 211 yards, rushed for 177 yards, and were up 23-3 at the half. Jordan Love passed for 256 yards with three TD and no INT, Aaron Jones had 120 rushing yards, and Bo Melton and Jayden Reed combined for 194 receiving yards and three TD.

On the season Green Bay ranks 11th in the league in scoring (22.9 ppg), 17th in passing yards per game, and 15th in rushing yards per game.

Love (3,843 yards 30 TD 11 INT) ranks 10th in the league in QBR and has seven TD and no picks in the last three games. Lead RB A.J. Dillon (613 yards 2 TD) is listed as questionable and in the last two games has seven carries in each and has only totaled 39 yards. Jones (545 yards 2 TD) is also listed as questionable and he has rushed for at least 120 yards in each of the last two games.

Green Bay will be facing a Chicago defense that ranks 20th in the league in points against (22.6 ppg), 21st against the pass, and first against the run.

Betting Trends

The Bears are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games.

The Bears are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS win.

The Bears have an Under record of 4-1 in their last five games.

The Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a win of more than 14 points.

The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0 points.

The Packers have an Over record of 6-0 in their last six games.

Here’s the way our model sees the game. The 1st prediction uses full season data, the 2nd uses the last 4 games and the 3rd uses the last 7. 

Chicago                   44.0          19           
Green Bay                 -3.0          24
  
Chicago                   44.0          30           
Green Bay                 -3.0          22
  
Chicago                   44.0          23           
Green Bay                 -3.0          20