Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens – Week 17 NFL Pick

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dolphins at ravens pick
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In a huge AFC matchup on New Year’s Eve the Baltimore Ravens can wrap up the #1 seed with a win hosting the Miami Dolphins.

The Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite with the total sitting at 47. The public has bet this game even so far, as the line has not changed since opening as of Wednesday.

The Dolphins moved to 11-4 and wrapped up a playoff berth in their last game in a 22-20 home win over the Dallas Cowboys. Miami covered as a 1-point favorite and they have covered the spread in four of their last five games including their last two.

The Ravens won their fifth in a row in their last game to move to 12-3 with a big 33-19 road win over the San Francisco 49ers. Baltimore covered as a 6.5-point underdog and they have also covered the spread in four of their last five games including their last two.

On the season the Dolphins are 10-5 ATS with an O/U record of 8-7 and the Ravens are also 10-5 ATS with an O/U record of 7-8.

These teams met early last season in Baltimore where the Dolphins beat the Ravens 42-38.

Still Work to Do

While the Dolphins clinched a playoff berth in their last game, they still have work to do. Miami can clinch the AFC East title with a win or a Buffalo loss and they face the Bills in the season finale. If the fish win their last two games, they can lock up the top seed in the AFC and get the coveted bye.

In the 22-20 win over Dallas, they outgained them 375 yards to 339 yards, forced the game’s only turnover, and won on a walk off field goal. Tua Tagovailoa passed for 293 yards with a TD, Raheem Mostert led the way with 46 rushing yards, and Tyreek Hill had 99 receiving yards.

On the season Miami leads the NFL in scoring (30.9 ppg) and ranks first in passing yards per game and fifth in rushing yards per game.

Hill (1,641 yards 12 TD) leads the league in receiving yards and was back in the last game after missing the previous one with an injury. One big concern for Miami is that second-leading receiver Jaylen Waddle (1,014 yards 4 TD) is dealing with a high ankle injury and is listed as questionable to face the Ravens.

Tagovailoa (4,214 yards 26 TD 10 INT) has the most passing yards in the league, ranks 12th in QBR, and while he has not been picked off in the last four games, he only has two TD in the last three games.

Mostert (1,012 18 TD) played a season low 19 snaps in the last game dealing with an injury and is listed as questionable.

Tua and company have a tall task against a Ravens’ defense that ranks first in points against (16.3 ppg), sixth against the pass, and 12th against the run.

Turnovers are Huge

In the big win over the 49ers the Ravens had fewer yards (241 to 308) but forced five turnovers (4 picks 1 fumble) and did not commit any.

In the San Fran win Lamar Jackson passed for 252 yards with two TD and led the team with 45 rushing yards and Zay Flowers had 72 receiving yards and a score.

On the season Baltimore ranks fourth in the league in scoring (27.8 ppg) and while only ranking 21st in passing yards per game they lead the NFL in rushing yards per game.

Jackson (3,357 yards 19 TD 7 INT) is likely the MVP front-runner, leads the team with 786 rushing yards and four TD, and has six TD and two INT over the last three games.

Gus Edwards (694 yards 12 TD) is the lead RB but in the last four games has only averaged 32.5 yards per game and in that span has not averaged more than 3.6 yards per carry. Flowers (752 yards 4 TD) leads the team in receiving yards and has at least 60 in two of the last three games.

Betting Trends

The Dolphins are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.

The Dolphins are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.

The Dolphins have an Over record of 11-4 in their last 15 road games.

The Ravens are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games facing a team with a winning record.

The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.

The Ravens have an Over record of 4-1 in their last five games.

Here’s the way our model sees the game. The 1st prediction uses full season data, the 2nd uses the last 4 games and the 3rd uses the last 7.  Looks like an across the board sweep for the Ravens.

Miami                     47.0          17           
Baltimore                 -3.0          32
  
Miami                     47.0          15           
Baltimore                 -3.0          29
  
Miami                     47.0          15           
Baltimore                 -3.0          28