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NFL Wild Card Game Preview:
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Bucs
Date: Sunday, January 12, 2025
Time: 8:15 PM ET
Venue: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
The Matchup:
As we edge into the thrilling NFL Wild Card Weekend, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will host the Washington Commanders in what promises to be an electrifying battle under the lights of Raymond James Stadium. With the Bucs clinching another NFC South title, they come into this matchup as -3 point favorites at home (betonline), with the total set at 51, hinting at a potentially high-scoring affair.
Offensive Firepower:
Both teams have shown they can light up the scoreboard. Tampa Bay has been particularly impressive, boasting a yards per play differential of +0.7, which ranks 4th among all playoff teams. This stat underscores their ability to move the ball effectively on offense while limiting the opposition. Washington, on the other hand, isn’t far behind with a +0.3 differential, placing them 9th in this category.
When looking at offensive efficiency via yards per point, both teams find themselves in the top half of the playoff field. Tampa Bay has been led by the dynamic duo of Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans, with Mayfield throwing for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns in the regular season. Washington’s rookie sensation, Jayden Daniels, has also been a revelation, finishing the season with 3,568 passing yards and 25 touchdowns, adding a dynamic rushing threat to their offensive arsenal.
Defensive Concerns:
However, on the defensive side, both teams have areas of concern. Washington has been particularly vulnerable, ranking dead last among playoff teams with a defensive yards per point allowed of 14.2. This statistic paints a picture of a Commanders defense that struggles to prevent points once the opposition gets into scoring range. Tampa Bay’s defense, while not as porous, still ranks near the bottom in this key metric, suggesting that both teams might engage in a high-scoring shootout.
The Prediction:
Our predictive model offers two different perspectives on this game:
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Season-long Data: When considering performance throughout the entire season, our model predicts a Buccaneer victory by 10 points, with a final score of 33-23.
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Recent Form (Last 7 Games): However, if we focus only on the last seven games to gauge current form, the model sees a much closer contest, predicting a narrow 27-26 win for Tampa Bay. This reflects the recent surge in form for both teams, especially Washington, who have shown significant improvement as the season progressed.
Game Outlook:
Could we be looking at a shootout? Absolutely. With both teams’ offensive capabilities outpacing their defensive performances, fans might be treated to a game filled with offensive fireworks. The key will be which defense can muster a few crucial stops or perhaps force turnovers to change the game’s momentum.
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We don’t have a strong opinion on the side in this game. We give a slight edge to the Bucs here based on being at home along with the playoff experience they have on the roster. The stronger play may be OVER the total of 51 in what could be a last team with the ball wins type of a game.
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OVER 51 1 Unit
Bucs -3 1/2 Unit
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