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Vikings at Rams NFL Wild Card Preview: January 13, 2025
Game Details:
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Teams: Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams
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Date: Monday, January 13, 2025
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Time: 8:00 PM EST
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Venue: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
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Spread: Vikings -1.5 (betonline)
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Total: 47
As the NFL Wild Card Weekend wraps up with a prime-time clash, the Minnesota Vikings, boasting a 14-3 record, will journey to the West Coast to face off against the Los Angeles Rams who finished the season at 10-7. This matchup under the Monday night lights is more than just a playoff game; it’s a tactical battle between two teams with contrasting season statistics.
Team Dynamics:
The Vikings come into this game with momentum, despite a disappointing end to their regular season with a loss to the Detroit Lions. Their offense, while not always consistent, has the firepower led by quarterback Sam Darnold, who’s had an impressive season. On defense, the Vikings have been particularly strong, ranking third among playoff teams in defensive yards per point allowed at 17.2. This could pose a significant challenge to the Rams’ struggling offense.
The Rams, on the other hand, have shown resilience, clinching their playoff spot with a solid late-season run. However, they’ve had their struggles, particularly in yardage efficiency. They’re one of only three playoff teams with a negative yards per play differential, sitting at -0.3, only better than the Steelers’ -0.4. More concerning is their offensive inefficiency, ranking last among playoff teams in offensive yards per point at 15.3. This inefficiency will be tested against Minnesota’s stout defense.
Key Matchups:
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Vikings Defense vs. Rams Offense: The Vikings’ defense has been a wall this season, and they’ll look to stifle the Rams’ offensive plays, which have been less effective in terms of points scored per yard gained. How Matthew Stafford and his offense adapt to this challenge will be crucial.
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Sam Darnold vs. Rams Secondary: Darnold’s performance in this game could be pivotal. With the Rams’ pass defense having moments of vulnerability, Darnold’s ability to exploit this could decide the game’s outcome.
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Rams’ Running Game: With Kyren Williams leading the charge, the Rams need to establish some ground game to keep the Vikings’ defense honest and potentially open up the passing game.
Statistical Insights:
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The Rams, along with the Steelers and Chiefs, are the only playoff teams with negative yards per play differentials. The Rams’ -0.3 is the second worst, highlighting a season-long challenge in maintaining offensive balance.
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The matchup pits the Vikings’ #3 ranked playoff defense by yards per point allowed against the Rams’ least efficient offense in the same metric.
Our Pick:
Our model, using data from only the last 7 games, has the Vikings on top by a score of 25-22. However, we think the margin is likely to be higher. There’s something wrong with a playoff system that has one of the best teams in the NFL this season, The Vikings, going on the road to face a team that barely got in.
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Sure, the Vikings came up short when they needed a big performance last week in Detroit, but that outcome likely only increases their focus on the Rams.
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With a spread of only -1.5, all we’re being asked to do here is pick a winner. We think the Vikings win this game rather easily as they bounce back in a big way from last weeks loss in Detroit and send a message to the remaining playoff teams that they are a legit contender.
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Vikings -1.5
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