NHL Game 7’s
Analysis with odds
Whether you’re a hockey fan or not, you’ve got to tune in tonight to watch these Game 7’s between the Rangers and Capitals and the Bruins and Maple Leafs. There’s nothing like Game 7 NHL playoff action. It’s right up there with the most exciting moments in all of sports, be it the Kentucky Derby or a Heavyweight Title fight. If the Game happens to go into overtime, that’s the cherry on top.
While we aren’t going to necessarily offer a selection on either of these two Games in this article, we’re going to give you some food for thought. We’re also going to give a plug to a fantastic website which we have no affiliation with whatsoever. The site is http://www.whowins.com and they do a great job offering a historical perspective on NBA and NHL playoff series, including but not limited to Game 7’s.
If we take a look at the historical records of teams in Game 7’s in the NHL, we see that home teams are 87-58, or 60%. That figure is ALL Game 7’s. If we break it down further, and take a look at preliminary rounds only, that figure drops to 32-25 or 56%.
The Caps are 3-8 overall and 2-6 at home in Game 7’s. The Rangers are 5-5 overall and 0-5 on the road. The Bruins are 12-11 overall and 11-7 at home. The Maple Leafs are 12-9 overall and 5-8 on the road. Lastly, how they got to this Game 7 also has some importance. Meaning, which Games in the series they have won thus far. For example, The Caps won Games 1,2 and 5 or WWLLW. Teams that have that pattern of wins and losses are 15-0 in the series. The Bruins got there by going WLWWL. Teams with that pattern are 9-9 in series or 50%.
How is any of this significant tonight? Well, it may not help you pick the winner of tonight’s Games, but it can help you in the long term. Sportsbetting is a numbers Game. You’re betting on the probability of something happening. The price should determine whether or not you will bet on an event. NOT who you think is going to win. That’s a very difficult concept for a rookie sports bettor to grasp.
For example, if you consider the historical records of all teams in Game 7’s, the home team wins 60% of the time. That would mean the correct price would be the home team favored by a price of -150 (it would be less than -150 if you consider only preliminary round results). Now, the Bruins have been -200 or more in every home Game thus far. As of this writing, there is no price for tonight’s Game, but they are likely to be -200 or better once again. That would mean, based on history, the correct play would be Toronto. Now, Toronto may or may not win tonight. But, if you’re able to get say, +180 or better consistently in this EXACT same situation every time in your betting career, you’re very likely to be a long term winner whereas if you lay -200 over the long run in this situation, you’ll likely lose you’re shirt.
While the Bruins and Caps would appear to have the edge along with the backing of the home town crowd, the correct plays from a betting point of view, historically speaking, is to back both dogs. Even a split earns you a profit on the night. Whatever you decide to do, enjoy the Games. There’s nothing quite like Game 7. Especially when the Game is close as the the 3rd period ticks away.