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2008 NOTRE DAME FOOTBALL PREVIEW
BETTING SEASON WIN TOTALS
This is a big year for Notre Dame football and more specifically, Charlie Weis. Weis walked into a perfect situation a few years ago. The Fighting Irish had switched to a pro style offense and was loaded with guys who were in the system for 4 years. Weis just had to guide a ship that was already set up to win. Guide it he did, going 9-3 followed by an encore performance in 2006, going 10-3. Weis was looked at as the greatest thing since sliced bread. But those betting that Weis would continue his winning ways were in for a huge letdown last year. Heading into this year, the oddsmakers have Notre Dame at odds of 75-1 to win the National Title. Perhaps a better bet to consider, which will cover below, is the season win total.
Last season, the Irish went 3-9 and they won just one home game all year, going 1-6 in South Bend. Ouch! Now we get to see if Charlie Weis is going to make it as a College Football coach. From here forward, as he enters his 4th year behind the wheel, this is his team. His players. His recruiting. His coaching. You think Chuck is under any pressure? Do you think the powers that be in South Bend will tolerate more losing? We know that at the very least he needs to improve on last years mark. He may get as pass this year regardless of what the Irish do, but the pass won't be good the following year.
Notre Dame and Charlie Weis have their work cut out for them. The problem is that they weren't even competitive last year. The gap between them and the elite in College football was enormous. The only "good" team they came close to, was beating UCLA and the Bruins were just a 6 win team. Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State, Georgia Tech, and USC all pounded Notre Dame beating them by 20+ points. The Irish had zero defense. It was pathetic.
One wager you might want to consider betting is the season win total for Notre Dame. They are listed at over/under 7 wins at Sportsbook.com. To bet that Notre Dame wins more than 7 games you have to risk $140 to win $100. However, to bet that Notre Dame wins less than 7 games, you'd risk $100 to win $110.
Now, consider this. In order to win that bet, Notre Dame would have to win 8 games. You're asking one of the worst teams in college football a year ago, to win 8 games this year. If they do that, Weis gets coach of the year honors and a contract extension. Betting the under would seem to have it's advantages here. Remember, even if the Irish can win 7 games, you'd still get a push and would get your money back.
On the plus side for Notre Dame, it's not a brutal schedule. However, as bad as they were last year, is it possible to close the gap enough to win 8 games? Even the games against "bad" teams on their schedule would have to be looked at as toss ups. Give them 3 wins for sure, at home against San Diego State, Stanford and Syracuse. Give them losses to Michigan and USC. This means, in the remaining 7 games which we'd classify as toss ups, they would have to win 5.
Notre Dame will be an improved football team this year. Plus, their schedule cooperates. All the same, I personally am not sold on Weis, and feel winning 8 games is a stretch this year. So count me among those betting the under 7 wins, in the over/under prop for Notre Dame total wins in 2008-2009. Remember too, Bowl games do NOT count with this wager. It's regular season wins only.
In case your interested in season win totals for some of the more popular College teams, here is a list from Sportsbook.com
USC Over 10.5 (-150)
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