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ILLINOIS AT PENN
STATE
9/27/08
Penn St –15.5 vs Illinois
The #22 ranked Illinois Fighting Illini make the trip to Happy
Valley to take on the #12 ranked Penn St Nittany Lions in what will
be the Big 10 opener for both teams.
Penn St has come out blazing this year with a 4-0 start, both SU and
ATS, and an offense and defense that appear to be clicking, as
they’ve taken out all 4 opponents by at least a 31 pt margin. I
guess you can’t really count Coastal Carolina, but taking out an
improved Syracuse team on the road by 42 pts is pretty impressive.
And then you figure a visiting Temple team, that literally has every
player back from last year, and has already taken UConn into OT, and
then very nearly pulled the road upset on a very good Buffalo team,
would certainly be able to cover a 4 TD spread. But the Lions
covered easily, putting up 45 pts and holding the Owls to just a
single FG in another 42 pt romp. And all of a sudden, that 45-14
whooping they put on visiting Oregon St has got to look enormously
more impressive after seeing the Beavers totally dominate #1 ranked
USC on Thursday night. That should do wonders for Penn St’s BCS
strength of schedule rating!
Penn St., who returns 9 starters on each side of the ball, is led by
QB Daryll Clark, a 6’2”, 230 lb senior who has been outstanding so
far. He has passed for 720 yds, completing 61.5 % of his passes for
7 TD’s and just 1 INT, for a stellar 166.1 QB rating. He can scoot a
little too, as evidenced by his 12 rushes for 81 yds and 2 rushing
TD’s. RB’s Evan Royster and Stephon Green, running behind an
offensive line that has been said to be (arguably) the best Penn St.
OL in the last 15 years, have made for a formidable backfield in
combining for 671 yds and 11 TD’s, and an average carry of nearly 8
yds per attempt. And on the receiving end, WR’s Jordan Norwood and
Deon Butler have contributed nearly 550 yds and 6 more TD’s, and
have averaged an impressive 17 yds per catch.
Penn St.’s defense has been equally impressive in allowing an
average of just 52 yds rushing, 222 yds of total offense and just 10
pts per game. They’ve also come up with 6 INT’s and 2 fumble
recoveries, and they don’t even have 2 of their best players in
there yet. Defensive linemen Maurice Evans and Abe Koroma have been
on suspension for the past 3 games, but will be returning for this
game.
Illinois didn’t look bad offensively in their season opener vs
Missouri, but they sure couldn’t stop anybody as the Tigers scorched
them for 52 pts and almost 550 yds of total offense. They followed
that game up with an impressive home win over weakling Eastern
Illinois. But then they looked extremely average in their last game
against a very poor UL-Lafayette team, in squeaking out a close
20-17 win at home. QB Isiah William’s numbers don’t look too bad on
paper. He has passed for 722 yds and 7 TD’s and has close to a 60%
completion rate. But he has also thrown 5 INT’s in 3 games. And when
you notice that 451 of his 722 passing yds, and 5 of his 7 TD’s came
in that first game vs Missouri, a game in which they were down 31-13
at HT and were playing catch-up, it shows that he really hasn’t done
much since….basically 2 TD’s and 3 INT’s vs a couple of doormats.
It’s true that they have had a lot of success running the football
the past 2 games, but I doubt if they have that kind of success on
the ground against Penn St this week. The Illini running game
focuses primarily on QB Williams himself, and then there’s basically
just RB Daniel Dufrene who has been Rashard Mendnhall’s understudy
for the past several years.
The Illinois offense, which ranked 5th in the nation last year in
rushing, will certainly not resemble that unit this year. As stated
earlier, the Penn St defense has only given up a total of 209 yds
rushing in 4 games so far this year, and that was with missing two
of their best linemen. Illinois is not going to beat them through
the air either. With Penn St having revenge on their minds for a
27-20 loss last year at Illinois… a game in which they turned the
ball over 4 times and gave up a 90 yd kickoff return…..this game
shapes up as a statement game. And Joe Pa has basically said so by
reinstating his suspended defensive stars. Illini QB Williams did
not have a good game in that win last year and he does not figure to
have a good one here either, which is what it would take for them to
have any chance. There is no Rashard Mendenhall this year, and they
are playing in a hostile environment in front of over 100,000
crazies, against a team that has been dominant on both sides of the
ball, and that has revenge on their mind.
Penn St is 4-0 at home vs Illinois in their last 4 meetings in Happy
Valley, winning by an average margin of 16.5 pts. Penn St is also
8-2 in the last 10 meetings with the Illini overall, winning those 8
games by an average margin of over 22 pts per game. I think Illinois
is in store for a good old-fashioned beatdown here and I’m picking
Penn St by around 3 TD’s in this one.
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