VIRGINIA AT WAKE FOREST

11/08/08

3* Virginia +4 over Wake Forest - Virginia is a perfect example of why season to date stats can be meaningless and why you need to break seasons down into segments. The Cavs without a doubt looked like one of the worst teams in college football to start the year. Give them a pass for getting hammed by USC in the opener, but following a win over Richmond, they then went on to get hammered by Uconn and Duke. Naturally any season to date stats reflect that horrendous start, but if you throw out that horrible start and concentrate on the last 5 games Virginia has played, you see a very different team. They now resemble last years bunch, which went 9-4 and played more 1 and 2 point games than any other team in the country, sporting a stingy defense that kept teams out of the End Zone.

For example, if you take Virginia's season to date points for and against you see a team getting outscored 17-22 on the year. We love to use yards per point numbers as well to illustrate how hard a team has to work to score 1 point. The lower the number on offense the better. The Higher the number on defense, the better. Virginia's year to date ypp numbers are 18 on offense and 15 on defense. As we pointed out in a write up last week, when the offense number is higher than the defense number, that's a bad thing. The 18 on offense means Virginia has had to travel 18 yards to score one point. To compare, a team like Florida scores 1 point every 10 yards.

When we toss out those early season fiascos and focus just on the last 5 games, we see a Virginia Team that is outscoring it's opponents 24-14. They have an offensive ypp number of 15 and a defensive ypp number of 22. Spectacular on the defensive side of the ball. They have accomplished this against good ACC teams. They beat Maryland 31-0. They beat non ACC East Carolina. They beat North Carolina, Georgia Tech, and lost by a TD in overtime to Miami. These are all teams that will contend for the ACC title and Virginia beat them all but Miami.

WHO HAS THE BEST BONUSES? BETUS DOES!

Wake Forest would seem to be tailor made for Virginia. At the very least this one has all the makings of a last second field goal game which could go either way. It's definitely a game Virginia can win. Wake Forest was averaging 10 points per game over their 5 games previous to last weeks 33 against Duke and in that time they hadn't scored more than 17 in that stretch. Don't look at the Duke game and think Wake Forest rediscovered it's offense. Duke has given up 24 or more points in 5 of their 8 games this year.

Now Wake Forest must contend with a defense that has held teams to 0, 20, 13, 17 and 24 points their last 5 times out and the last one was really a 17 if you don't count overtime. For a team not putting it in the end zone against good defenses, covering a 4 point spot would seem to be a tall order for Wake Forest this week. With all that's on the line this week in the ACC you'd expect a tough, close game here.

The last 4 times these two played the games were decided by 4 points or less. Last year was the first time they had played since 2003 and Virginia came away with a 1 point home win. Interestingly enough Virginia is 12-1 straight up against Wake Forest.

Wake Forest still holding on to one trait that has made them tough the last few years and that's the ability to create turnovers. They are the #4 team in the Nation in that category. They don't beat themselves and in a game likely to be decided by a mistake, the lean would go to Wake Forest, but Virginia has done a decent job in that category over the last 5 games, staying on the plus side of the margin, just not as good as Wake who has only turned the ball over twice in the last 4 games. (Virginia turned it over 5 times their last 2 games).

But it's the Virginia season that looks to hold more promise. One win away from being Bowl eligible after that terrible start would be quite a story, and getting there is no guarantee with Clemson and Virginia Tech on deck. Wake Forest seems to have lost some of that magic we've been accustomed to seeing over the last few years.

We're counting on this one coming down to the wire, in which case, the +4 looms large. 3* Virginia +4 over Wake Forest.

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