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COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 4

"BEST OF THE REST PICKS"

9/27/08

Minnesota +18 over Ohio State - This game has some intrigue. Minnesota is 4-0. Ok, they haven't played anyone. Most folks not involved with College football on a weekly basis probably wouldn't recognize the names of the teams they beat. But guess what? Ohio State hasn't played anyone either with the exception of USC, a test they failed miserably. The Gophers are + 11 in turnovers. We'll take a shot here.

 

Maryland +11 over Clemson - Clemson hold the upper hand in the series by a wide margin but a look at recent results shows Maryland plays Clemson close more often than not. We'll take the +11 here as Maryland has shown the ability to score some points.

 

North Carolina +7 over Miami Fla - Well, last year North Carolina upset Miami 33-27. This year, North Carolina has just about every starter form that team back. So, why not another close one? The Tar Heels capable here as long as last weeks loss to Virginia Tech doesn't take the win out of their sails.

 

UCLA +7 over Fresno State - This line opened Fresno -3.5 and was pounded up to 7. Things not looking good for UCLA For sure. Meanwhile Fresno went toe to toe with Wisconsin and won a shootout with Toledo last week 55-54. Speaking of Toledo, they lost to Arizona 41-16. UCLA lost to Arizona 31-10. If Toledo lost by a larger margin to Arizona than UCLA did, yet scored 54 on Fresno, does that mean UCLA is better than Toledo and therefore can beat Fresno? Hmmm. We'll take the added value as UCLA wins outright.

 

West Virginia -14 over Marshall - This week we see just how far the Mountaineers have fallen. They beat Marshall by a combined score of 90-26 the last two years. For a measuring stick of where you stand WVA fans, Wisconsin beat Marshall 51-14 a couple of weeks ago.

 

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Colorado +6 over Florida State - This one caught our eye early on and we considered a Key Release on Colorado. We really liked what we saw in the West Virginia game from this team. They are no doubt on their way up in the Big 12. But we still aren't sure how far along they are. Can't really judge off the WVA game alone as we really aren't sure about WVA at this point either. FSU gets back the rest of it's suspended players this week and based on last weeks results against Wake Forest, they'll need them. Truthfully these teams look even. In which case, the 6 is enough to get the money here. Colorado +6

 

Wisconsin -6 over Michigan - You get the feeling the Michigan offense is going to put it all together at some point this year. You also get the feeling it's not going to be this week.

 

Purdue +1.5 over Notre Dame - Perhaps Charlie Weis belongs back in the NFL. A loss here and he'll be on his way sooner rather than later. The Irish defense had tons of trouble with the Purdue offense last year and hasn't shown us anything this year that says they'll have any success this week.

 

Ole Miss +23 at Florida - Classic let-down spot for Florida here. Huge road win at Tennessee last week and then come home to play an average Ole Miss team. I did read that Florida, under Meyer, is just 1-5 ATS against the spread coming off games with Tennessee and Georgia and the average wins coming by only 14 points. A good trend to watch there. Miss had 6 turnover against Vandy last time out in a game they should have won easily. Coach Nutt will have Miss ready to stick around at least until the 4th quarter. Florida 21, Ole Miss 20.



Colorado State +26.5 (line should be at 27 by game time) over California...Cal is off a loss to Maryland but have Arizona State on deck. Colorado State is a non-conference sure fire, easy win for the Golden Bears but too many points to lay here on a CSU team that beat Houston last week. I see the Rams hanging around for a while in this one even though they are the best team out there. Call it a hunch but this spot looks good to take the rather large dog. Cal 42, Colorado State 33

 

Wake Forest -16 over Navy - Wake Forest leads the Nation in turnover margin which has been a constant with this program since their emergence as an ACC contender. That may be enough this week.

 

TCU +18.5 over Oklahoma - Hey, it could happen. Speaking of turnovers, TCU weighs in at number 3 in the nation.

 

NC State +10 over South Florida - South Florida not living up to lofty expectations this year and they don't travel well. NC State is a live home dog in this one.

 

Illinois +16 over Penn State - Really wanted to find a way to back Illinois as a Key Release this week. Penn State looks great but we need to see more. Juice Williams has the ability to shorten this game and keep it close all by himself.

 

Virginia Tech +7 over Nebraska - Tech fantastic against the number on the road and Beamer deserves all the credit. Great coach. He'll find a way to take this one to the wire. Nebraska no powerhouse.

 

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