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Florida State Looks for Upset of Favored BYU
9/19/09
Early season upsets can be shocking; especially when last year’s national
runner up goes down. Hardly anyone gave BYU a chance to take down Oklahoma, but
the Cougars were able to get the job done. If you had told me this summer that
they would be ranked in the top 10 this quickly, I probably would have chuckled.
Their climb to the top will be presented with an obstacle this week. That
obstacle is the Seminoles of Florida State. Bobby Bowden’s bunch narrowly
escaped a loss to Jacksonville State last week, but don’t let that fool you. The
Seminoles are a tough team.
Though few expected it, the BYU Cougars were able to escape week one with a
14-13 win over the Oklahoma Sooners. That was thanks in part to Heisman Trophy
winner Sam Bradford leaving the game with an injury. QB Max Hall was shaky at
times, but threw a game winning TD with 3 minutes left. He ended the game with
329 yards while throwing 2 TDs and 2 INTs. Dennis Pitta played very well in that
game at WR, catching 7 passes for 90 yards. Bryan Kariya also did well at RB,
catching 4 passes for 76 yards. His longest catch of the game was 49 yards.
The running game was able to get on track for BYU in week two, as they rushed
for 206 yards in a 54-3 win over Tulane. JJ Di LLuigi had 75 yards and 2 TDs
from 12 carries. The sophomore is getting better with each game and the Cougars
will rely on him more and more as time goes on. However, they will still rely on
the pass first and foremost. The defense has been solid so far, but I’d like to
see them blitz FSU’s Ponder early and often. Making him uncomfortable and
forcing him to throw INTs would go a long way towards a BYU victory.
Christian Ponder looked like he was possessed by Joe Montana in the first half
of the Florida State vs Miami game, but he quickly cooled off in the second
half. He ended that game completing 24/41 passes for 294 yards while picking up
2 TDs and an INT. He was unable to score from the 3 yard line with first and
goal while the game was on the line. Ponder also rushed for 28 yards and a TD.
WR Richard Goodman had 82 yards from 5 catches, and a long catch of 28 yards.
Ponder was strong in Florida State second game, throwing for 324 yards.
The fact that they had to work so hard to beat Jacksonville State is
discouraging, but I wouldn’t read too much into it. They were entering the game
after a disappointing loss and on short rest. I’m worried about the Florida
State defense. The defensive line won’t be able to effectively pass rush BYU,
and the secondary also appears to be weak. If they allow BYU to throw the home
run ball all game then this game will turn into a blowout very fast.
The line currently favors BYU at -7.5 at
Sportsbook.com, and
for good reason. They are a team on a roll and on the rise. The Cougars combine
a potent offensive air attack with run support and a strong defense. There's
some built in value here with the Florida State side as a result of BYU's win
over Oklahoma and Florida State sruglging against Jacksonville State. We're
going to grab +7.5 and the extra value that comes with it,
Florida State +7.5
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