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Minnesota vs Penn State Betting Line and Analysis
10/17/09
Penn State hosts Minnesota in a crucial Big 10 game Saturday. The Nitanny Lions opened as a -15.5 point favorite and the money has poured in on Penn State all week at Sportsbook.com making the Lions a -17.5 favorite. The total on the game is 49.
Before the season started it looked like the stars had aligned to give Joe
Paterno his one last chance at not only a Big 10 Title, but a National Title.
They had a very good team coming back, and their schedule was very light.
Unfortunately for Joe Pa and his Nittany Lions they just can’t figure out how to
beat Iowa, and for the 2nd straight year the Hawkeyes knocked Penn State out of
National Title contention.
All is not lost though. This Nittany Lion team is still very much in the hunt
for a Big 10 title, and if they want to keep it that way they need to avoid
another upset when Minnesota comes to Happy Valley. This Gopher team is very
talented, but they just haven’t been able to close out the big game. In their
loss to California they were all tied up at 21-21 going into the 4th quarter and
couldn’t close out the victory and lost 35-21. Then against Wisconsin they had a
13-10 lead at halftime, but then gave up 21 points in the 2nd half to lose the
game 31-28.
PRIMETIME MATCHUP
The Nittany Lion offense that had been the issue with this team is finally
starting to come around. Since their loss to Iowa where they only scored 10
points, they have put up 35 and 52 in their last two games. With their offense
finally doing its job it makes the defense’s job even easier without having to
win games for them. Although we expect this Penn State offense to once again
hold up its end of the deal, we believe that the key to this game is the matchup
with the Nittany Lion defense against Minnesota’s QB Adam Weber.
The weakness of the Minnesota offense is the strength of the Penn State defense.
Minnesota is last in the Big 10 averaging just 114 yards a game on the ground.
Penn State is #1 in the Big 10 in stopping the run allowing just 82 yards per
game. With Penn State being able to stop Minnesota’s rushing attack rather
easily, the game is going to come down to if Adam Weber can lead this Minnesota
team down the field with his arm. Penn state is #2 in the Big 10 in pass defense
allowing just 174 yards per game through the air, so Adam Weber is going to have
to have one of his best games of his career to be able to move the ball up the
field on this tough Nittany Lion defense.
The one thing Weber does have going for him is his target WR Eric Decker. Weber
will need to find Decker early and often and get the ball in his hands because
he has the ability to score from just about anywhere on the field.
THE FINAL VERDICT
Penn State has been playing with a chip on their shoulder ever since losing to
Iowa for the 2nd straight year. This Nittany Lion team knew exactly what was
taken from them when the Hawkeyes left with the victory. Their BCS Title hopes
might be all but gone, but they still understand that they are playing for a
spot in the Rose Bowl and a Big 10 title.
At the same time, other than Iowa, which they lost to, Penn State has yet to
play anyone. It's safe to say Minnesota has played a tougher schedule and has
also been in every game they have played. Hard to advise laying -17.5 with Penn
State here. Anytime a line crosses key numbers or multiples of key numbers
you've got to take notice. This game opened -15.5 and is now 17.5 making the
Gophers the value side here. Minnesota +17.5
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