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Florida vs. Alabama
Betting Line: Alabama -8 o/u 41
10/2/10
HC Urban Meyer knows this week means one thing. It's time for his Florida
Gators to do battle with the Alabama Crimson Tide yet again. The last meeting
between these two came just a year ago in the SEC Title Game. Both teams were
undefeated, but the Crimson Tide rolled on Tim Tebow and company by a score of
32-13. Alabama will host this game.
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HC Nick Saban's team narrowly escaped a
tough Arkansas team last week. Things won't get any easier against the Gators.
Florida surely hasn't forgotten the spanking Alabama delivered last year. They
will seek revenge as 9 point underdogs.
The Florida Gators are 10-3-2 ATS in their last 15 games on the road. This has
been an extremely profitable angle. However, they are 0-3-2 in their last five
road games ATS, and just 1-5 ATS when playing Alabama. The Crimson Tide is 3-1
against the spread so far in 2010. It's certainly been a long time since the
Gators have been underdogs. Both teams have experienced drastic change since
they last met so it's tough to gauge how they will fare against one another.
Florida improved drastically in their last game against Kentucky at the Swamp.
They were lacking an offensive weapon prior to this game, but it appears they
have found one in freshman Trey Burton. The Venice, FL native broke Tim Tebow's
record for TDs in a game by finding the end zone a whopping 6 times. He ran it
in five times, and caught a TD pass. The freshman also completed a 42 yard pass.
This is one of the best debuts we've seen from a college player since, well, Tim
Tebow!
Can we expect him to be nearly as good? Don't get your hopes up. However, he
could be a catalyst to an offense that hasn't blown any pundits away in 2010. QB
John Brantley has been doing better with each game, and RB Jeff Demps is
lightning fast. Demps is slightly injured, but will play. It is unclear to what
extent the leg injury will affect his game.
Alabama's offense features an excellent QB in Greg McElroy. It took him a while
to step up and play to his potential, but he reached that point in the late
stages of 2009. He enters this game after a poor showing against Arkansas, but
he's rebounded from bad games in the past. RB Mark Ingram ran up the Razorbacks
for 157 yards and 2 TDs last week. Backup Trent Richardson had 85 yards on 10
carries. It will be important to work him into the game as Florida's stout
defense takes its toll on Ingram.
The Crimson Tide dominated opposing teams in 2009 with high flying and nasty
defense. They have been just as good in 2010 despite losing key starters. The
secondary was able to get in Ryan Mallett's head and pick him off 3 times last
week. That's incredible considering he is a Heisman candidate and widely
considered to be one of the best QBs in the FBS. While the defense has been
great at producing turnovers, they haven't sacked the QB much. They have only 4
total sacks thus far in 2010.
The Gators defense has been dominant in 2010. They held Miami, OH to just 211
yards of total offense while intercepting the RedHawks QB 4 times. The offense
was so abysmal in that game that they may have been in jeopardy of losing if not
for the defense. When the Gators played rival Tennessee they were able to sack
the QB 6 times. This defense can stop the run, but they haven't faced anything
close to Trent Richardson and Mark Ingram this year. The game could be in the
hands of the defense.
The revenge angle is one of the most powerful in college football. You can't use
it blindly of course. No matter how badly a team like, say, Duke would like to
avenge their loss to Alabama, they have no shot. A team has to be capable
of revenge. I think we all know, the Florida Gators are plenty capable. You're
getting an inflated line due to the Gators slow start and apparent early season
struggles. But heck, they are still 4-0 and no one has come within two
touchdowns of them.
The Gators have literally been working on this game, specifically, stopping the run, since they were hammered last year in the SEC Title game for 251 yards on the ground. This quote sums it up. "It was a nasty taste last year with the loss," defensive tackle Jaye Howard said. "And this offseason was dedicated to beating Alabama."
This line opened Alabama -9 and is now -8. The move from 9 to 8 doesn't bother us, but you want the +8, so don't wait. Florida +8