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Denmark vs. Japan
World Cup Prediction - Analysis
6/24/10
Group E pool play comes to a climax Thursday night at 8:30 pm local time when
a high stakes match between Denmark and Japan kicks off. A trip along with The
Netherlands to the elimination bracket is dependent solely on the outcome if
this game. The pressure will be on Denmark in Royal Bafokeng Stadium as they
need an outright win to advance to the elimination round of 16. Even though
Japan and Denmark are knotted at 3 points each in Group E scoring, Japan holds a
1 point goal differential advantage, thus the Japanese will advance to the
bracket with either a win or a draw. This differential advantage is due to a 2
goal Japanese advantage defensively and Denmark only holding a 1 goal advantage
offensively when compared head to head.
Computer generated statistical simulations forecast approximately a 55% chance
of Japan winning or drawing the match, leaving Denmark a 45% chance to move
through. The main concern for the Japanese team has to be the significant height
advantage Denmark holds over them, slightly more than 3"average per player. This
advantage should be especially strong in the set piece department, where many
balls are played as headers. Unfortunately, Denmark has been struggling with
gaining corner kick advantages so far this world cup, only amassing a paltry 4
total from the 2 previous games against The Netherlands and Cameroon. For
comparison, perennial teams such as Spain and Italy have gained 24 and 23 corner
kick advantages respectively during each of their first 2 contests.
However, the Danish height advantage is apparent with a 100% completion rate
of these 4 corners, meaning Denmark did get the first touch on the ball after
the cross. Japan must give up as few set pieces to Denmark as possible and
remain calm when clearing the ball defensively. Players clearing the ball out
the back too hastily can be a frequent occurrence, Japan must be extremely wary
of this tendency. Although, this could prove difficult for Japan as they have
only legitimately cleared the ball defensively 11 times with only one of those
clearances resulting in a possession. Look for Denmark to hold a substantial
possession advantage, possibly as much as 60% as Japan will most likely be on
their defensive heels. Another important angle to consider is that Denmark had a
big come from behind victory in their last game against Cameroon, their top
scorer Rommedahl putting in the eclipsing goal. This type of momentum could very
well carryover into this match with Japan.
Japan appears to be sending the same unit as last game except for Shunsuki
Nakamura could possibly be added to the starting lineup, whereas he came off the
bench against the Netherlands. Denmark will have to replace defender Simon Kjaer
due to excessive yellow card infractions.
Wagering odds on this event have been drawn up as +120 for a Danish win and +220
for a Japanese win leaving a +230 choice for the draw. Goal line odds favor
Denmark as a -180 pick. (Odds
courtesy of Bodog.com)An over/under of 2.5 goals has been set with a -175
line on the under, which makes sense considering this is expected to be a high
tension defensive game. Trending has Denmark 4-5-1 in their last 10
international games, including a 3-1 beating of the United States. Japan holds a
3-6-1 record in their last 10, respectively. Neither team having a winning
record in the last10 is a major concern when looking forward to possible second
round elimination match-ups. Whichever team continues through from this game
will most likely face Paraguay, the Group F leader.
Weather conditions should play little factor in Rustenburg, Thursday night as
the forecast is for clear skies and 50 degrees Fahrenheit at game time.
Stateside, this game can be seen on ESPN at 2:30pm eastern, 11:30am pacific.