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Spain vs. Paraguay
World Cup Prediction - Analysis - Betting Odds
7/2/10
It's no surprise Spain is the heavy favorite for Saturday's Quarter final match
against Paraguay. Spain's recent 3 match win streak is making the 1-0 loss
against Switzerland in the opening game seem like ancient history. Paraguay, on
the other hand, have been unable to put up a regulation goal since the 2-0 win
against Slovakia on June 20th. Paraguay does however have a tournament record
unblemished by any losses, 1-0-3.
David Villa has been having a superb world cup tournament, notching 4 out of the
teams 5 goals. Fernando Torres, Spain's other starting forward, seems to be
rounding into form after a recent knee surgery. He showed strength with any
early strike that was blocked, in the game against Portugal. With Torres getting
stronger the Villa-Torres tandem that won the Euro cup in 2008 will be back to
championship form. Another bright spot for Spain is the lethal mobility of
defenders Romos and Capdevila who have not hesitated to join in offensive
efforts. While Spain seems to be only rising since their early defeat Paraguay
has been struggling offensively despite making it through to the quarter finals,
by penalty kicks. An Interesting stat about Paraguay is that their 3 top
forwards are scoreless thus far in the tournament. Cruz, Barrios and Valdez are
all professional club players but have not managed to put the ball in the net in
the last 4 games. Barrios and Valdez have no excuses as they are teammate for
German club team, Borussia Dortmund, and should know each other's tendencies
very well. Needless to say, Paraguay is badly needing some production from their
front line. All 3 of Paraguay's tournament goals have come from midfield and
defensive players, which have also only giving up 1 goal all tournament in the
first game against defending champion's Italy.
Although Paraguay's defense has been performing very well, Spain has a dominant
statistical advantage in this matchup. Offensively, Spain is amongst the leading
teams in almost all categories, 39.2% shot accuracy from 74 total shots, 34
corner kicks gained, and an amazing 81% pass completion rate. Paraguay shot
accuracy is decent and 40.7% but this is only from 54 total shots. Paraguay
struggles with gaining corner advantages, only 13, and with pass completion
rate, only 68%. This passing rating is going to hurt Paraguay especially against
a Spanish team on the ball defense that boasts 11 tackles for possession
compared to 8 for Paraguay. Tactically both teams seem to be comfortable with a
4-3-3 set, Spain also uses 4-4-2, putting only Villa and Torres up front. An
interesting point is that when Spain lost to the Suisse they used an awkward
4-5-1 set when they were still testing Torres' strength, don't expect to see
that arrangement again anytime soon.
Wagering odds for this event have established Spain as a heavy -250 favorite in
3 way pools, putting Paraguay as a big +700 underdog. A draw in regulation plus
stoppage will bring +330. On the goal line, Spain is laying a full goal at -130
and giving Paraguay a full goal puts the odds at even money. The problem with
wagering on Spain for the goal line is that even though -130 seems to be a very
good price, all of Spain's tournament wins so far have been by exactly one goal.
Which of course, would constitute a push on the goal line. The total goals for
the match is set at 2.5 where the under is priced at -175 and +135 for the over.
(Odds courtesy of Bodog.com)
Another interesting set of odds to consider is 'tournament top goal scorer'.
Odds are as follows, Villa(4) (ESP) 2-1, Higuain(4) (ARG) 11/4, Fabiano(3) (BRZ)
9-2, Mueller(3) (GER) 14-1. Number in parenthesis after name is current total
goals.
Even though Spain is a heavy favorite and a 1-0 score is very likely, this match
is sure to be an exciting display of world class football. It can be seen
stateside at 2:30 pm eastern, 11:30 am pacific on ESPN.
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