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Kansas State

vs.

TCU

Free College Football Pick

11/10/12

It took a while, but the line is finally out for this game. Due to Collin Klein's uncertain playing status, bookmakers weren't sure how to rate the Wildcats without their Heisman candidate. At this point, Bill Snyder is expecting Klein to play, yet it isn't a certainty. If there was a time to upset the Wildcats, this would be it. TCU is coming off its second overtime in three weeks as they won at West Virginia after going for two in the second overtime.

The Horned Frogs haven't been as good as previous campaigns, but they are fighting in their first season of Big 12 play with a 3-3 conference record. Their once vaunted defense has given up at least 36 points in three straight games which isn't what you want when facing the No. 2 team in the country.

Kansas State is currently -7 at 5 dimes and most other offshore sportsbooks. The Wildcats are bruising this year against the spread, having only lost one game and that was against North Texas. TCU hasn't been as good and haven't taken control of their home field advantage. In their two conference home games, they lost as favorites to Texas Tech and Iowa State.

Without Collin Klein for all but one drive in the second half last weekend against Oklahoma State, Daniel Sams was only able to lead his team to three field goal attempts. Keep in mind, they were already up by double-digits and weren't really pushing for more points. Sams still completed five of his six pass attempts which is a good sign. Again, even if Klein doesn't go, they still have tailback John Hubert who has 760 rushing yards and 12 TDs on the season. Most reports are saying Klein will go, including his Mom who said he is definitely going to play. Klein has 29 total touchdowns this season (12 passing, 17 rushing) and should find plenty of room against the Horned Frogs defense.

TCU probably won't be able to stop the Wildcats from scoring, which is why their offense needs to show up. Trevone Boykin now has five starts under his belt, but success is not coming with experience. He had his worst game of the season against West Virginia last week completing only 12 of his 29 pass attempts for two TDs and an interception. His seven total interceptions through five games may turn into a problem, especially after K State intercepted OK State QBs four times last week. Boykin will have to play safe and find his top target and playmaker Josh Boyce as much as possible. Boyce finished with 180 yards and two TDs against West Virginia and was named the Big 12 offensive player of the week. The Horned Frogs running game hasn't done much lately which could be a problem. Last week including Boykin, they did not have a rusher over 39 yards and averaged only 2.8 yards per carry as a team. If you cannot move the ball against the Mountaineers, it won't be easier against the Wildcats.

Kansas State is 5-0-1 ATS vs. a team with in a winning record and 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine road games. The Horned Frogs don't have many positive trends as they are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS win and 0-6 ATS in their last six home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The under is 5-0 in the Wildcats last five road games, but the over is 9-3 in TCU's last 12 home games.

Could this be the week Kansas State gets caught sleeping? It's incredibly difficult for any team at any level, to show up and play 100% in each and every game. They're only human. Sometimes they get caught looking ahead. Sometimes they start to believe the press clippings. Sometimes they simply don't show up.

When good teams slip up, generally, their opponent has something to do with it as well. Often times, you can see it coming. Well, TCU simply doesn't fit the bill here as a team ready to spring a major upset. They have lost 2 of their last 3 and 3 of their last 5. In 4 of their last 5 games they gave up 36+ points. The once great TCU defense just isn't there. The only teams they were able to stop this year were the cupcakes they faced early on. Now they are expected to stop Kansas State? We just don't see it.

Our model doesn't see it either. Our model predicts a 20 point Kansas State win using season to date stats and a 30 point Kansas State win using only stats from the last 5 games. Kansas State can only beat themselves here. If that doesn't happen, they should roll. Kansas State -7

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