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College Football Pick with Analysis
Boston College hosts the Miami Hurricanes on Saturday, September 1st, at 3:30 pm est. Miami opened as high as -2.5 at betonline, the 1st book to post lines each week. SBG Global opened the game -2 while 5 Dimes opened the game -1.5. The game now sits at pk across the board despite the action being fairly balanced in terms of number of bets taken per side. Generally an indication that the bigger bets are coming in on the BC side. But remember, bigger does not always translate into smarter.
BC would seem to be a logical choice here at first glance. They return a healthy number of starters overall, including 10 on offense and 7 on the defense. They also beat Miami last year on the road to end their year at 4-8. The Hurricanes finished up 6-6 on the year in 2011. Miami also had the potential to be loaded this year, but instead lost 6 starters to the NFL, which in our opinion, is a testament to the quality of player Miami is still able to recruit.
Returning starters can be a valuable handicapping tool. Teams that were on the cuff, ready to break through a year ago, that also return most of their key guys, can be teams to watch. More times than not, those teams turn those close loses from the previous year, into wins in the current year. But we don't put BC in that category. They simply weren't very good last year. They had close games with the likes of Northwestern and Duke, and were blown off the field by quality opponents such as Virginia Tech, Clemson, Florida State, even Central Florida.
Miami did lose to BC in the final game last year, but remember that the Hurricanes were under a self imposed Bowl ban, so you have to question the motivation of the team. They led 14-10 at the half but didn't show up in the 2nd half, losing 24-17. Last year they beat Ohio State and lost close games to Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Florida State. Their 6-6 season could have been much better, whereas the same can't be said about BC as most of their losses weren't close.
Overall, both teams had a decent defense a year ago when compared to all other college football teams, but Miami's was better, 21st in the entire country. The gap on offense was even wider between these two. Miami was 65th in the nation at 26.5 points per game while Boston College was 116th at 18 points per game. That's 116th out of 124 teams. That's pretty bad. So yeah, returning 10 starters on offense is great. But are they 10 quality starters that were on the verge of breaking through last season? No, obviously not.
Miami has had their troubles in recent years. It's not the same program it was a decade ago. That being said, they still recruit better players than most teams in the nation, especially those ever so important skilled positions. Plenty of players that watched from the sidelines for the Hurricanes, could easily have started for a team like BC last year. We give Miami a great shot at going up to BC and getting a little revenge for that season ending loss a year ago.
We mentioned the self imposed bowl ban. If you think that doesn't impact a teams motivation, consider this quote from last year. "My heart just dropped," said freshman cornerback Thomas Finnie. "I saw all the seniors put their head down like they were about to cry. Everybody just had a sour feeling inside."
The motivation will be a little different this time around for the Hurricanes. Miami pk over Boston College.
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