Week 12
NFL Picks
11/25/12
Our Turkey Day picks went 2-0-1 so let’s see if we can keep things going as we go Game by Game thru the NFL daNCe card and offer a selection for each Game of week 12. The only Games not listed here will be the Packers vs. Giants as well as the Monday night Game as those Games have full write ups. Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving! On to the Games.
Bengals -8 over Raiders – If you follow us regularly, you know we’d rarely lay more than a TD on an NFL Game. Not in the real world. But for the sake of making a selections here, there’s only one way to look. The Raiders are terrible. In fact, their defensive yards per point number of 11.6 is dead last in the NFL. Their offensive number ranks 27th. Our model likes the Bengals by anywhere from 11 to 24 points, depending in the time frame of the data we feed it.
Browns +1.5 over Steelers – Truth be told, we’d make this Game a pick em WITH Big Ben in the line up. The fact that the Steelers are down to 3rd stringer Charlie Batch should only help Our cause here. The Browns have won just twice all year, but they aren’t getting blown out and have been in just about every Game.
Bills +3 over Colts – Neither team very good in the big scheme of things. The Colts could be quickly reGAining their place in the hearts of America’s bettors as they continue to draw a high percentage of the action week after week ……85% of the action this week at sportsbook.ag on this Game is on the Colts. Thank you Andrew LUck!
Broncos -10 over Chiefs – As mentioned in the Raiders write up, we won’t lay this big of a number in the real world but for the sake of making a selection here, it has to be the Broncos. The Chiefs are ridiculously bad. How bad? They aren’t just the worst team in the NFL this year, they are one of the worst NFL teams we have ever seen. Our model says 42-14 Broncos.
Jaguars +4 over Titans – Neither of these teams should ever be trusted as a favorite so we’ll take the dog, at home no less.
Bears over Vikings – No line posted yet for this one due to Cutler’s status but we’d expect a big bouNCe back effort from the Bears here who are actually a very good football team.
Bucs +1 over Falcons – Fascinating Game. Falcons have only lost one, but have been just squeaking by. Bucs look good on paper, but look at the teams they have beaten and then look at the teams they lost to. They beat the bad teams and lost to the good ones. If we look at only the last 5 to 7 Games Our model likes the Bucs by a TD.
Dolphins +3 over Seahawks – Very similar teams in that neither has much of an offensive puNCh while both actually have very good defenses. Seattle has more magic when home. We’re going against Our model here, which likes the Seahawks by a TD or more.
Ravens +1 over Chargers – Chargers clinging to life by a thread. They have lost 5 of their last 6 Games and two of their 4 wins were against the Chiefs. The other two were the Raiders and Titans. The Ravens aren’t the Ravens of old, but they should win this one and put another nail in Norv Turners coffin. Ravens yards per point numbers of 12.6 offense and 18.5 defense still among the best in the NFL. Chargers ypp numbers are 14 on both sides of the ball. We’ll take the better team getting a point.
Saints +1 over 49ers – Saints are hot and still alive after an 0-4 start. Our model likes San Fran comfortably in this Game reGArdless of how many Games worth of data we use. But were going to go against Our model here and go with the surging Saints.
Cardinals -1 over Rams – The Cards have lost 6 straight after a 4-0 start. That 6 Game slide started with a 17-3 loss to the Rams. Revenge isn’t as big of a deal in the NFL as it is in college but it is a bit stronger when it’s a division Game. Look for the Cards to end their losing streak against the team that started it.