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Arizona

vs.

Washington

College Football

Pick

Betting Trends

9/28/13

There is going to be a ton of great games in the Pac-12 this season and this one is just a preview. Both teams are still undefeated and playing great. Of course, in Arizona's case it's not all that hard to be playing great as their wins aren't all that impressive. Washington, on the other hand, has already beaten Boise State at home and Illinois on the road.

The tides have changed quite a bit from a year ago. The Wildcats were 8-point home favorites in 2012 and they proceeded to thrash the Huskies, 52-17. This year, the Huskies are looking for revenge. In this matchup, the home team has won five straight times and covered in all of those games. Let's just say there are a lot of home blowouts between these teams. That could explain this game opening at Washington -7 and getting bet up to -9.5 and still climbing at GTBets sportsbook.

Interestingly enough, this is a game that BOTH the sharps and the public are on the same side. A whopping 96% of the early action at sportsbook.com has come in on Washington. Betting against the public can be a profitable strategy. But when the public and the sharps are on the same side, lookout. There will come a time when the value in this game will switch to the Arizona side. Likely at +10, we'll have to wait and see.

Washington has been a tough team to play at home over the past couple seasons, even though this is the first year they are being really respected on a national level. Keith Price is looking stout in his senior season at QB, completing 77 percent of his passes through three games for seven touchdowns. His trio of WRs is looking good led by Kasen Williams. All three of them have between 199 and 204 yards, which shows how much Price mixes it up. Of course, you can't talk about the Washington offense without mentioning running back Bishop Sankey. He's one of the best in the country, already with 446 yards and four touchdowns. He was rested a good portion last weekend against a weak opponent in order to get ready for conference play, and he went for 77 yards on four carries.

Even though Arizona's defense struggled for most of 2012, they actually contained Price and Sankey last year to just 17 points. It's almost a guarantee that the Huskies are going to put up more points than that this weekend. Probably a lot more, unless the Wildcats have a better defense than perceived.

The Wildcats have quite a different offense than what we saw last year. With a new quarterback leading the way, they've been run-heavy in the early going. Ka'Deem Carey is a given with 299 yards and four TDs, but now that they have a running QB, it's a lot different than the pass-heavy Matt Scott from a year ago. B.J. Denker only has 326 passing yards and two TDs in three games, but leads the team with five rushing touchdowns and 224 rushing yards.

Washington's defense is completely different from what Arizona has faced so far, though. Will Denker and Carey be able to carve through the Huskies, or will Denker be asked to use his arm a little more?

The Wildcats don't have many trends, but they are 2-5 ATS in their last seven against a team with a winning record. As for the Huskies, they have a solid 13-3 ATS mark in their last 16 home games. The over has hit in six straight meetings between these schools, and as mentioned above, the home team has covered in five straight.

Our model has this as a low scoring affair with Washington on top 17-12. Now that suggests a play on Arizona +10 and UNDER the total of 61.5. However, Arizona has played 3 cupcakes, 3 teams they should have dominated, and did. So, while the model takes this into consideration, it simply can't be truested here.
 

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