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Buffalo

vs.

San Diego State

Idaho Famous

Potato Bowl

Pick

12/21/13

Buffalo is one of five teams from the MAC that will be playing a bowl game this year. Considering the conference, that's an impressive number. San Diego State out of the MWC is a little more respected with six teams in bowl games. Still, the line for the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl has been up and down and is currently pk at 5 dimes sportsbook.

Bettors at sportsbook.com are favoring San Diego State as 64% of the wagers thus far have come in on the Aztecs while 62% has come in on the under. This, according to their betting trends feature, which you can view for all sports by opening an account with them.

This is just Buffalo's second bowl appearance ever and they deserve it. The Bulls finished with an 8-4 record, with two of their losses coming on the road at Ohio State and Baylor. They actually fought the Buckeyes in a 40-20 loss. Monstrous wins over Connecticut and Ohio highlight their season, and all four of their losses came against winning teams which is what you want.

The Aztecs were of similar mold with a 7-5 record, although an opening-game loss to Eastern Illinois doesn't look that great. They also played Ohio State and failed to do much, losing 42-7. SDSU has some nice games, going to OT (but losing) to Fresno State and then beating Boise State in OT. However, they closed the season with an ugly 45-19 loss at UNLV. It should be noted they were missing multiple pieces on their offensive line in that game, and all of them are set to return for the bowl.

Buffalo is led by its defense that is one of the best at creating turnovers in the nation. Khalil Mack won the award for the nation's top linebacker, which is a huge feat coming from a MAC school. He finished with an incredible 19 tackles for loss, 10.5 sacks and three interceptions. The kid can play.

As a unit, the Bulls stopped every opponent but the top ones. Giving up 51 points at Toledo looks like a bit of a fluke as they still allowed 22.3 points per game despite that 51-point game and the 70-point game from Baylor.

Offensively, Buffalo plays as one would expect a team with a solid defense to play. They run it a ton with Branden Oliver, who finished with 1,421 yards and 15 touchdowns. The problem for him was that he didn't do much against tougher competition, racking up a lot of his stats against bottom-level MAC teams. Joe Licata is a decent quarterback, but nothing overwhelming with 21 TDs and seven INTs. He only surpassed 225 yards twice all season. His favorite target is the 6'3" Alex Neutz who finished with 947 yards and 11 TDs.

San Diego State struggled defensively all year and it didn't really matter who they played. Giving up 30 points to New Mexico and having to beat Hawaii in overtime don't look great on the resume. Oliver and Licata should be able to move the ball decently.

The other end side of the ball will be the interesting part as SDSU has a better offense than most of the MAC teams that Buffalo has faced, although that's not saying much.

The Aztecs run a balanced attack led by QB Quinn Kaehler, who actually had worse numbers than Licata with 17 TDs and nine INTs. Inaccuracy was a problem in Kaehler's most recent game, as he completed 52 percent of his passes and tossed two interceptions against UNLV. The running game will be huge for the Aztecs because that's the best chance they have to move the ball. Adam Muema and Donnel Pumphrey lead a two-headed attack that has combined for 1,765 yards and 20 touchdowns. Ezell Ruffin (1,061 yards) is the receiver to watch for in this game.

There's a good reason this line has moved back and forth so far. These teams are tough to read and it will likely end up being a close game, much like most of SDSU's season as seen in their four overtime games.

The Bulls are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games, but just 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 5-11 ATS in their last 16 non-conference games. The Aztecs are only 1-6 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.

Our Key Releases are rated 1* thru 6* with our regular unit being a 3* play. Our Key Releases will be available on a game by game basis this year. 1* and 2* plays will be $15 and 3* and up will be $20. The Buffalo/San Diego State game is a 1* Key Release and you can purchase it using the link below.

 

1* Key Release Buff/SD State - $15

 

**Note - Anyone who purchases and individual game that LOSES, will be given the next Key Release at no charge.

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