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Pick with Analysis
It's hard to decipher where each of these teams are at right now. Oklahoma State is coming off a loss to West Virginia, while Kansas State just hasn't looked that good and didn't do much in its loss to Texas two weeks ago. Even though the Wildcats are coming off a bye week, the Cowboys are still heavy favorites, currently -13.5 at 5 dimes sportsbook.
The question to ask of OK State is just how good are they? Sure, they're scoring a lot of points, but a lot of that is due to their opponents, scoring 115 points combined against UTSA and Lamar. They beat an average SEC team, Mississippi State, in the first game, but only 21-3. Now that they couldn't top West Virginia, a team in rebuild mode, it's hard to see why the Cowboys should be ranked.
Quarterback J.W. Walsh hasn't looked as good as people think. He only completed 20-of-37 passes against West Virginia and tossed two interceptions in the process. Even against Lamar, Walsh only completed 56.7 percent of his passes. The problem could be in the running game where they haven't done much. Walsh is the Cowboys leading rusher with 234 yards. Their leading running back Jeremy Smith has 177 yards and is only averaging 3.4 yards per carry. Smith managed one yard last weekend on 15 carries against the Mountaineers. Not exactly what you want to see.
From the current results it's easy to see that the Cowboys are lacking something offensively, although that may not matter against KSU. Their defense is a step below last year's unit as seen in the two losses, but again this is Bill Snyder coming off a bye.
Offensively, the Wildcats are still looking for the right blend to move down the field. Quarterback Jake Waters has done okay as a starter, but ultimately hasn't been cutting it with four TDs and five interceptions. The running QB Daniel Sams can move the chains with his legs (205 rushing yards), but defenses know whenever he's in the game, it's likely going to be a run. Sams has attempted four passes all year, but 29 rushes. They have players with experience like receiver Tyler Lockett, who torched the Longhorns for 237 yards, and also running back John Hubert is an asset (238 yards, four TDs).
It's a toss-up on how good this OK State defense is. They stopped West Virginia's rushing game last week, but still gave up over 300 yards through the air.
A lot of people are on the Cowboys in this game on the sole fact that K State already has two losses. But don't overlook Oklahoma State as they haven't really done anything that deserves a ranking in the Top 25.
The Wildcats are 7-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, but just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. The Cowboys have covered in seven straight home games and are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss. In this meeting, the over has hit in six of the last seven games and Kansas State is 4-1 in the last five matchups.
Turnovers could be a problem for Kansas State here as they are -5 on the year in TO margin, while Oklahoma State is +3. Otherwise, the numbers we like to use, including yards per point, not to mention our score prediction model, all point towards Kansas State having a shot to stay within the number. Kansas State +13.5
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