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Pick - Trends
This was supposed to be a huge game, and ultimately the deciding one for the Big Ten Legends division this year. Needless to say, things haven’t gone to plan for either team. While Nebraska is still within striking distance with one conference loss, they are coming off a loss to Minnesota and a win vs. Northwestern that required a Hail Mary. Michigan is almost entirely out of the picture with a 2-2 Big Ten record and is fourth place in the division. That said, the Wolverines are still -7 point favorites at home, at betonline sportsbook.
The Cornhuskers don’t really have a good win this year. Their three conference wins are against the bottom three Big Ten teams and they fell apart against UCLA in their only game against a ranked team. Taylor Martinez has battled injuries for most of the season, which is one of the main problems, but he started in the loss to Minnesota. His availability for this game is questionable.
The Wolverines are coming off an embarrassing 29-6 loss against in-state rival Michigan State. Their play in conference hasn’t been great either, as their defense is getting gashed in almost every game. For the first time all season, Michigan is out of the Top 25.
In this matchup last year, Nebraska’s defense surprisingly held Michigan to just nine points. That was the game Denard Robinson got hurt in and backup QB Russell Bellomy came in and tossed three picks. It’s unlikely the Wolverines will score single digits in back-to-back weeks after going for over 100 the previous two games.
Devin Gardner isn’t a bad quarterback, but when he doesn’t get time to throw, he can’t do much which is what happened against the Spartans. Gardner can move the ball through air and ground if given the opportunity, and there should be plenty opportunity against Nebraska. The Cornhuskers have been gashed for over 500 yards the past two weeks on the ground, which is where running back Fitzgerald Toussaint steps in. If he and Gardner stick to the ground, Michigan should be able to move the ball freely. That should open up the play-action to Jeremy Gallon and the Wolverines will be in business.
Then comes Michigan’s defense, which has been disappointing to say the least.
However, if Tommy Armstrong Jr. gets the start again, it’s going to be very hard for the Cornhuskers to match Michigan on the scoreboard. Armstrong can run the ball, yet his arm just isn’t up to par with Martinez’s. They’ll try and ride Ameer Abdullah (1,108 yards, six TDs) as much as possible, but it won’t be easy. The Wolverines actually have a stout run defense so if Abdullah can’t get anything, it could be a tough day for Nebraska.
The last time these teams played in Ann Arbor the Wolverines came out with a 45-17 win as -3.5 point favorites.
The Cornhuskers are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 road games and just 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Wolverines are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games, but 13-30 ATS in their last 43 conference games.
The public is expecting Michigan to bounce back after last weeks loss as 65% of the action as of Tuesday has been on the Wolverines. This, according to the betting trends feature at sportsbook.com.
Might be usng this one as a key release, so no pick for now, Should be a wild affair though.......
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