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Ohio State

vs.

Purdue

Big 10

College Football

Pick

11/2/13

People started doubting just how good the Buckeyes were and then they trounced Penn State 63-14. As expected, Ohio State hasn't lost yet and won't have another truly difficult game until they have to travel to Michigan in the season finale, or so we think. Considering they already beat Wisconsin, the Buckeyes are almost a shoe-in for the Big Ten Championship game. They'll be -31.5 point favorites at 1-6 Purdue this weekend with a total of 56.5 at 5 dimes sportsbook.

The Boilermakers actually gave OSU one of its tougher games last season. The Buckeyes needed a two-point conversion as time expired to tie the game and then won in overtime 29-22. It wasn't pretty with Purdue outgaining the Buckeyes in total yardage. Kenny Guiton had to come in for Braxton Miller (due to injury) in the fourth quarter to amount a comeback. Can Purdue somehow do the same thing again this year?

Looking at the pure numbers, it almost seems impossible for the Boilermakers to make this a game. But if you don't follow Ohio State football that closely, then you don't know the problems they've had with Purdue in recent years.

The Boilermakers have covered in seven of the past nine meetings if that says anything. In the last two games at Purdue, the Boilermakers have won outright. In addition, the Buckeyes have not scored more than 23 points in any of their last five games at Purdue. Those are incredible numbers when considering the two schools.

This season has been a little different for Purdue. The Boilermakers' only win on the year is against Indiana State. In three Big Ten losses, they've scored a total of 17 points, while allowing 41 to Wisconsin and 44 to Nebraska. Purdue will need to suddenly improve on both ends of the field to come close in this one.

Freshman Denny Etling is in at quarterback and hasn't done much to keep his spot. In three games of work, Etling is completing 47.5 percent of his passes for 585 yards, three TDs and four INTs. Most of those numbers came against Northern Illinois. Akeem Hunt leads the running game, but he's only averaging 3.7 yards per carry and hasn't scored yet on the ground.

It will be a struggle for Purdue to surpass 10 points in this one unless something crazy happens. That means the Buckeyes need to score at least 40 points here, which isn't out of question.

There are no signs that point to Purdue being able to contain Braxton Miller like they did a year ago. Miller is coming off a dominant performance against Penn State with 320 total yards and five touchdowns. Carlos Hyde has rushed for 464 yards and seven TDs in the past three games.

The Buckeyes are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win and 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a bye week. The Boilermakers are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week and are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings between the schools.

Our score prediction model has Ohio State on top by a score of 50-13. But be careful here. This looks to be an ideal spot for an Ohio State let down. I guess if we had to play this game, we'd take a look at the total and posdsibly go over the 56.5 points as it certainly looks as though Ohio State can get there on their own. As far as the side, while it looks like Purdue can't get out of their own way, we'd lean towards taking the 31.5 points but wouldn't touch this game in the real world. Opinion only - Over 56.5


 

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