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Oklahoma

vs.

Oklahoma State

College Football

Pick

12/7/13

 

This is it for the Big 12. If Oklahoma State can come out on top, the conference is theirs for the taking along with a BCS bowl. Easier said than done, but after dismantling the only two teams tied with them in the conference the last two games (Texas and Baylor), they are favorites. Big favorites indeed, as the Cowboys are -9.5 at home over the Sooners. at 5 Dimes Sportsbook with a total of 58.


The sportsbook.com betting trends show 68% of the early action has come in on the Cowboys.


The last time the spread was this big between these teams was back in 2008 when Oklahoma was regularly the top team in the country. Times have changed as these teams have fought over the last three years. Oklahoma came out on top 51-48 last year at home, but lost in 2011 at Oklahoma State in a 44-10 blowout.


The Cowboys have been extremely impressive lately, easily beating Texas 38-13 and Baylor 49-17 in their last two games. Those games make it even harder to understand exactly how they lost to West Virginia 30-21 earlier in the year. The Mountaineers only have two conference wins on the year.


Quarterback Clint Chelf has been vital in those two games, completing close to 75 percent of his passes. Against Baylor, it almost came easy as Chelf went 19-for-25 for 370 yards and three touchdowns. Against Texas, Chelf used his legs and rushed for 95 yards and two TDs. This may not be the high-flying offense from a couple years back, but they can still score. The passing game hasn't been great throughout the year, which was the concern coming down the stretch, but Chelf has come up big. Running backs Desmond Roland and Jeremy Smith don't have eye-popping numbers, but when given the ball they can move the chains.


It'll be interesting to see how the Oklahoma defense deals with the Cowboys. The last time the Sooners held them to fewer than 41 points was back in 2009. Against better offenses, OU has struggled, allowing 41 points to Baylor, 36 to Texas, 30 to Texas Tech and 31 to Kansas State.


In their two losses, the Sooners had trouble on the offensive end and couldn't keep up. It still hasn't been decided who will start at QB as Blake Bell is coming off a concussion and missed the K State game. It's likely Bell will return, but if not, Trevor Knight would get the start. That's not good news, as Knight has not played well this year despite being the starter out of the gates. Bell isn't amazing either completing 60 percent of his passes for 11 TDs and five INTs, but that's better than Knight. The running game will be prevalent due to the QB problems. Brennan Clay went for 200 yards and two TDs against Kansas State, although fellow RB Damien Williams was dismissed from the team before that game. Both Bell and Knight can rush, but Knight is a bit shiftier and averages 7.1 yards per carry.


Oklahoma State's defense has really stepped up its game and will cause problems for this Oklahoma offense, no matter who's at quarterback. Stopping Texas and Baylor in back-to-back weeks says it all.


Oklahoma can still clinch a share of the Big 12 title with a win, but will need its offense to pick it up if that's going to happen.


The Sooners are 1-5 ATS in their last six games on field turf and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win. The Cowboys have covered in six straight games overall and are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games. The Cowboys have covered in two straight games in this series, but the Sooners covered in six straight prior to that.

Oklahoma State has thebetter team, they are at home, they have the revenge motive in their favor after last years 51-48 loss and our model predicts them to win by 2 TD's or more. Oklahoma State -10

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