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Pick - Analysis
Oklahoma is coming off its big win over Notre Dame, marking just their second win against the Fighting Irish in 11 tries. TCU is also coming off a win, but beating SMU doesn't really have the same power as Notre Dame. The Sooners haven't looked amazing this year, but are still undefeated and ranked No. 10 nationally. The Sooners are currently favored by 9 at GTBets sportsbook.
After a less than enticing 16-point performance against West Virginia, Blake Bell took over at quarterback and has kind of revived this offense. He's completing over 70 percent of his passes for six touchdowns and zero interceptions in his two starts. That doesn't even include his ability to run the ball after going for 59 yards against the Irish. Sterling Shepard and Jalen Saunders are his known commodities in the passing game, both with three TDs and at least 16 receptions. Their rushing game has actually outgained passing on the season. Senior Brennan Clay leads the way with 339 yards, but he picked up a head injury last game and may miss this one. If that's the case, Damien Williams has the ability to step into the top spot.
TCU is usually known for its defense, but they haven't been overwhelming so far. They looked solid against Texas Tech, but when your offense only scores 10 points, that doesn't really matter.
The Horned Frogs got back some offensive life last week, scoring 48 points on SMU. They'll have to do that again if they want a shot in this game.
Trevone Boykin hasn't been bad, but he hasn't been good, either. In the loss to the Red Raiders, Boykin managed zero touchdowns and two interceptions. He was forced to move out of the pocket a lot and picked up 101 yards on the ground, but it wasn't enough. It's likely we'll see Boykin on the move a lot in this matchup against the Sooners. He's joined by the duo of Waymon James and B.J. Catalon in the backfield. The two have totaled for seven touchdowns and 391 yards. Brandon Carter is the team's top receiver, yet he only has 156 yards and zero TDs through four games.
The betting trends at sportsbook.com show us that 89% of the action this week has come in on the Sooners.
The Horned Frogs are only 3-8 ATS in their last 11 conference games and 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. The Sooners aren't much better at 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games and 1-4 ATS in their last five conference games.
TCU has the better yards per point numbers here and against a more difficult schedule than the Sooners. Yet, our score prediction model has the Sooners on top here by a couple of touchdowns on a game that would go under the total of 46, if the model is correct.
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