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Pick - Analysis
3-0 Georgia Tech hosts 3-1 Virginia Tech on Thursday night in a game which can be seen at 7:30 pm est. on ESPN. Georgia Tech is a -7.5 point favorite at 5 Dimes sportsbook as of this writing on Monday morning. Virginia Tech has held the upper hand in this series going 7-2 straight up including winning the last 3.
Early season handicapping can be a difficult process. In this case, we have 3 games to work with for Georgia Tech and 4 for the Hokies, which I suppose is better than zero. However, you're left with trying to make heads or tails of the different caliber of teams each has faced thus far. For example, Virginia Tech's loss came to the mighty Crimson Tide, a 35-10 setback in week 1. While one of Georgia Tech's wins came against Elon college, a 70-0 opening week win.
One of the things our score prediction model does very well is account for the difference in schedule that teams play. The score predictions are really starting to click as we now have enough data 3 or 4 games into the season. By clicking the link above, you can see last weeks predictions and you can see how they could have helped you in your battle against the bookmakers.
For this game, the model has Georgia Tech on top by a score of 26-10. We also like to use yards per point as a gauge and in this case those ypp numbers would agree with the model as Virginia Tech comes in with a decent 13 on offense but a very poor ypp number on defense, also 13. Georgia Tech's ypp numbers are fantastic on each side of the ball with a 10.6 on offense and a 24.3 on defense. It's still a tad early to rely on those ypp numbers but they suggest Georgia Tech is better on both sides of the ball.
Roll it all together and we'd have to lean towards Georgia Tech in this one. We can even add in a triple revenge motive as the Hokies have won the last 3 in this series. With Georgia Tech looking like the better team here, we'd expect them to take advantage of that and break through with a nice home win in from of a national TV audience. We see a couple of 7's on the board so, Georgia Tech -7
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