Washington
vs.
UCLA
College Football
Pick – Analysis
11/15/13
Both of these teams had to deal with back-to-back Stanford and Oregon Games, which sort of derailed their hopes for the season. However, both have gotten back on the winning side and have won two straight. UCLA is coming off a nice upset win at Arizona and still remain in contention for the Pac-12 South. Washington had a tall task in the North entering the season and won’t win that division, but they are still playing for a better bowl Game than a year ago. The Bruins are -2.5 point home favorites at 5 dimes sportsbook (home of reduced juice wagering!!)
These teams look a lot different than the last time they played back in 2010, so looking at previous matchups won’t do much. Despite last week’s win, the Bruins still aren’t getting much respect with two points at home. They are 3-1 ATS at home this year, while the Huskies are 1-2 ATS on the road.
UCLA is a solid team and is No. 13 in the BCS for a reason. They aren’t really deficient in any category on both sides of the ball. The Huskies still lack consistency from quarterback Keith Price and they still haven’t shown they can win Games on the road.
Price has great numbers for the season with 18 TDs and Four INTs, but hasn’t gotten the job done when needed in tougher Games. He completed 41 percent of his passes at Arizona State a few weeks ago and couldn’t really do much against Oregon the previous week. Price was solid against Stanford, which raises the question about consistency. Can he repeat his last two performances against California and Colorado, but this time on the road at UCLA?
To help Price, running back Bishop Sankey will have to get going. He has 1,305 yards and 13 touchdowns on the season. Arizona State is the only team to have stopped Sankey so far, and UCLA allowed 200-plus rushing yards to Arizona last week so Sankey should be in line for another 100-plus yard day.
The Bruins don’t have a top of the Conference defense, but they may give Price some troubles. against the mediocre QBs of the Pac-12, UCLA has come out on top more often than not.
Quarterback Brett Hundley will be a handful for the Huskies defense as they haven’t really stopped anyone on the road yet. Along with that, Hundley and company have carved through any competition they’ve faced at home, although that’s not saying much. This will be UCLA’s toughest home test of the season. Running back Jordan James has been hurt for just over a month, but that hasn’t seemed to change too much. The Bruins actually gave freshman linebacker Myles Jack carries last week and he destroyed the Wildcats for 120 yards and a 66-yard touchdown.
If Washington continues its road woes, this Game will be out of shot for them. UCLA is a tough team to beat at home and if Hundley gets going, it will be tough for the Huskies to get a win led by Price.
The Huskies are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road Games and only 1-4 SU in their last Four road Games. The Bruins are 13-3 SU in their last 16 home Games, and have won five straight matchups when playing at home against the Huskies.
The action at 5dimes.com as of Tuesday morning is as lopsided as can be with 93% of the wagers taken thus far coming in on UCLA. This, according to the betting trends at 5dimes.com, which should be a weekly tool in your handicapping endeavors. You can view the trends each day by simply opening an account at 5dimes.com. Take advantage of this great feature!
Sometimes, the oddsmakers get it right. These two look to be dead even on a neutral field. UCLA is currently favored by -3 at home which comes down to the home field advantage. So, no decisive edge from a statistical handicapping point of view.
We’ll lean towards Washington here simply because the Game is a toss up and any points are a bonus. We be very surpsied if this one isn’t decided late in the 4th quarter. Washington +3