Western Michigan
vs.
Air Force
Famous Idaho
Potato Bowl
Football Pick
12/20/14
The Famous Idaho Potato Bowl is a matchup between two teams that were never expected to make a bowl Game this season. Western Michigan and Air Force combined for three total wins last year yet here they are. The Broncos are favored by 1 at 5 dimes and sportsbook.ag
Western Michigan has been one of the friendliest teams for bettors this season as they covered in 10 straight Games at one point. Their non-covers were the first and last Games of the year with them failing to cover by two points or less in both. Their two Conference losses were to the two best teams in the MAC. In non-Conference play, the Broncos fell at Purdue (43-34) and Virginia Tech (35-17). Despite playing in five previous bowls, they have never won a bowl Game.
Air Force had a more impressive season overall playing in a tougher Conference and finishing at 9-3. They had wins against Boise State and Colorado State (two of the best MWC teams), as well as Navy in non-Conference play. The Falcons struggled on the road and that’s where all three of their losses came from, including one at Four-win Wyoming.
Like other military schools, Air Force runs the triple-option on offense and for teams that aren’t familiar with defending it, it’s not easy. Kale Pearson runs the offense and he out-dueled Keenan Reynolds and Navy earlier in the season which is impressive. Pearson isn’t a terrible passer with 14 TDs and three INTs on the year, and he’s the team’s second-leading rusher with 646 yards and six TDs. However, Pearson missed the CSU Game and is questionable to go for the bowl.
While they won that CSU Game, Nate Romine started at QB and completed just 6-of-15 passes. Leading running back Jacobi Owens (1,052 yards) is also out and has missed the last two Games. Four different ball carriers have at least five TDs for the Falcons, so the loss of Owens shouldn’t hurt too much.
The difference this year for Air Force is that their defense could actually stop teams. They allowed just over 24 points per Game, which was a huge step from last year’s 40 points per Game allowed. against the balanced attack of Western Michigan, it’s going to be key again.
The Broncos have made a similar jump, but on both sides of the ball. They doubled their production on the offensive end scoring 34.6 PPG this year and gave up 11 fewer points per Game on defense. Those are huge jumps between two season.
The offense, which has come out of nowhere, has dominated most of the MAC this season. Quarterback Zach Terrell is in his second season as the starter, while freshman RB Jarvion Franklin has been a beast. Terrell completed 70% of his passes for 23 TDs and 10 INTs, often finding Corey Davis (1,232 yards, 12 TDs) and Daniel Braverman (912 yards, 6 TDs). In his first season, Franklin has destroyed the conference, going for 1,525 yards and 24 TDs.
Because of that reason alone, WMU should give problems to Air Force, no matter how well the Air Force defense has been playing. against a similarly balanced team in their finale, Air Force beat Colorado State 27-24. The bigger question in the end may be what the Broncos can do against the Falcons triple-option.
The Broncos are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 Games overall and the Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five Games, but only 3-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Motivating factors play a huge roll in Bowl Game handicapping. In this spot, Air Force is no stranger to Bowl Games having appeared in 23 since 1958 winning 10 of those (though they have lost their last 2). Western Michigan has appeared in just 5 and they stand 0-5 in those appearances.
The motivation of Western Michigan notching their first Bowl win in program history combined with Our model predicting Western Michigan to win by 4 to 6 points is enough for us to give out an opinion on the Broncos -1. Nothing strong here, but Western Michigan -1.