LSU
vs.
Texas A@M
SEC
College Football
Pick – Analysis
11/27/14
Neither one of these teams are where they hoped to be at this point. Both are 7-4 and out of the SEC picture and just haven’t done enough all year to be considered one of the elite teams in the conference. As it’s the last Game for both, this one is mainly to decide who gets the better bowl Game. The Tigers are a -2.5 point favorite on the road as seen at 5 Dimes and sportsbook.ag.
LSU has some nice wins to their name against Wisconsin and Ole Miss, but came up short more times than not. The Tigers had a chance to put meaning to their season, but failed to hold on against Alabama and ended up losing in overtime. Now, Alabama looks primed to win the SEC West and go even further. As for LSU, they lost at Arkansas last weekend in an uninspired 17-0 Game. Can they put some motivation back into their Game against the Aggies?
Texas A&M had a bit of a letdown last week. The previous week they won at Auburn in a huge upset, but as favorites against Missouri, just couldn’t pull out the win. The Aggies were regarded as a top-10 team early on, then lost three straight, then got back into the rankings after the Auburn win, and now with this last loss, their respect is all but gone again. A subpar defense has cost them in every one of their losses, will it be a problem again?
Due to inconsistent QB play for most of the season, Les Miles has been non-committal with who his starting quarterback will be for this Game. Anthony Jennings has gotten the call recently, and hasn’t passed for more than 87 yards in the last two Games, and hasn’t done much on the ground either. It’s unlikely freshman Brandon Harris is that much of an upgrade either. The Tigers will lean heavily on the ground Game, which isn’t a bad thing against Texas A&M. Running backs Leonard Fournette (745 yards, 7 TDs) and Terrence Magee (471 yards, 3 TDs) should get plenty of touches.
The Aggies have allowed at least 34 points in their last five SEC Games, and even though LSU has a weaker offense, it may not matter. Texas A&M allowed 34 points and 335 rushing yards to Missouri in their last Game.
As for A&M’s offense, they’ve been inconsistent at best. Both of their quarterbacks have been considered the next-best thing multiple times this season, but there is no consistency. Kyle Allen will likely get the start here. He hasn’t been terrible, but he does have an interception in every one of his starts, and his overall numbers are worse than Kenny Hill’s. This is probably the toughest defense that the Aggies have played since they lost 59-0 to Alabama. Getting a ground Game would help, but it hasn’t been often that their trio of backs has gotten going this year.
The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road Games and only 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 following an ATS loss. The Aggies aren’t much better as they’ve been overrated for most of the season, 1-5 ATS in their last six SEC Games and they have not covered in five straight home Games.
This is a difficult Game to handicap. Each team as beaten a team(s) that the other lost to. However, if there’s a unit on either team that stands out the most, it would have to be the LSU defense. They have kept everyone in check with the exception of Auburn and Miss State and in looking for a a difference maker in this Game, the LSU “D” could be it. Our model agrees with Our assessment, picking LSU to cover the number regardless of the parameters we use.
This one won’t be a key release though. Two 7-4 teams with nothing to lose and letting is all hang out. Expect the unexpected.