Miami Beach
Bowl Pick
BYU
vs.
Memphis
12/22/14
In a Game between two teams that haven’t really received national attention, the Miami Beach Bowl should at least be a fun one and can be enjoyed on a Monday by itself. The surprising Memphis squad is a -1 point favorite over BYU at 5 dimes sportsbook.
Memphis finished the season with a 9-3 record, tied for the AAC title with UCF and Cincinnati. While they didn’t play UCF, the Tigers destroyed the Bearcats on the road 41-14. This was a huge season for Memphis removed from a three-win year with this being their first bowl Game since 2008. They fought in two losses at UCLA and Ole Miss, and let a halftime lead vs. Houston slip away for their third loss before winning the final six Games of the season.
BYU’s season has been even more interesting. After starting 4-0 behind Taysom Hill, they dropped their next Four as Hill got injured in the fifth Game of the year. Once new quarterback Christian Stewart got comfortable in the offense, the team reeled off Four wins to close the year, most impressively at California in a 42-35 Game. With Hill at QB, they won at Texas and against Virginia.
ACCording to the numbers, Memphis is probably the better overall team, but BYU has the better offense.
The Cougars aren’t as good without Taysom Hill, but Christian Stewart has been solid in replacement. While he’s completing 58.7% of his passes (8% less than Hill) and not really a rushing threat, Stewart has been a solid passer with 22 TDs and 6 INTs on the year. That includes the three-INT Game he had in his first appearance when Hill was injured vs. Utah State. In the final Game, Stewart threw for 433 yards and five touchdowns against Cal. BYU will also be without its top running back Jamaal Williams, who missed half of the season.
They’ll take a committee approach which has been effective to close the season. WRs Mitch Mathews and Jordan Leslie are two huge targets that will be tough to stop.
Memphis has only allowed 17.1 points per Game, but this will be a more difficult task than what they’ve seen for most of the year. Playing in the AAC, they didn’t have to face a team with a winning record in their final six Games. This is still a group that gave problems to Ole Miss and held down a pretty potent Cincinnati attack.
The Tigers will need to Scoreto win this Game though. BYU allowed more than 30 points in each of their losses. Memphis did put up an impressive 35 points on UCLA, and BYU doesn’t have an overly great defense so that should help.
Memphis runs a balanced attack with neither method being dominant. Quarterback Paxton Lynch is a big guy (6-7, 230) that has improved mightily in his sophomore season posting 18 TDs and six INTs. He’s tough to stop in short-yardage situations, hence his 10 rushing TDs. Brandon Hayes leads the backfield with 900 yards and five TDs. He should reach almost 20 carries and if he can get close to 80 yards, that’ll be a good sign for the Tigers.
In similar opponents, BYU won at Middle Tennessee 27-7 in November and Memphis beat them 36-17 in September.
The Cougars are 3-7 ATS In their last 10 overall and 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral-site Games. The Tigers are 5-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 non-Conference Games, but 3-13 ATS in their last 16 Games on grass.
Check Back on 12/22 for a pick on this Game