Missouri
vs.
Toledo
Free
College Football
Pick with Analysis
9/6/14
Toledo hosts Missouri on Saturday in what will be the 2nd Game of the season for both squads. Toledo knocked off New Hampshire 54-20 while Missouri handed South Dakota State a 38-18 setback. In this one, betonline has opened Missouri as a -5.5 point road favorite and we’d expect that number to rise.
Toledo is not to be taken lightly. They return 7 starters to the offense and 10 to the defense and have a history of playing well when stepping up in class. In 2011 they came within 5 of Ohio State at Ohio State in week 2. In 2012 in week 1, they took Arizona to overtime, again on the road. Last year they opened up at Florida and lost a hard fought 24-6 decision and followed that up in week 2 with a trip to Missouri where they lost 38-23.
In that Game a year ago, it was as close as a one point Game in the 3rd quarter before Missouri finally wore the Rockets down. Ultimately that’s what happens more often than not when a team from a Conference like the MAC goes up against a team from a major Conference like the SEC. It’s the depth that eventually wins out. You could take all the 2nd and 3rd stringers from most SEC teams and likely win a MAC championship. In the 4th quarter in a Game like this, it becomes fresh bodies against tired ones.
This is a scary Game for Mizu. Toledo is loaded. They are at home. They have revenge working for them and they know they can play with this team because they did so last year. Having said that, Toledo also lost to Akron, was doubled up by Northern Illinois and lost to Ball State as well. After last season they should have Mizu’s undivided attention.
At -6 or less we have to side with the Tigers. They have some talent to replace returning just 4 to each side of the ball but they should be deeper and simply better player for player here. Our model has a predicted score of Missouri 44-25 using mostly data from last season. That’s 19 points. Have the changes that have taken place with each team since last year had a 14 point difference in terms of the gap between these two teams? That would be doubtful. Missouri -5.5