New Mexico Bowl
Football Pick
UTEP
vs.
Utah State
12/20/14
The Gildan New Mexico Bowl has one of the largest spreads of the bowl season. It’s not exactly a testament to Utah State, but maybe more so of their opponent UTEP. The Miners finished the season at 7-5 while playing in the weak C-USA and none of those wins were against a team with a winning record. The Aggies are -10.5 point favorites at sportsbook.ag and 5 dimes.
While UTEP doesn’t have a great win on the year, they have been kind to bettors this season with a 9-3 ATS mark and that’s mostly because they were really bad last year with two wins. They opened the season with a win at New Mexico as 10-point underdogs, and then they almost upset Texas Tech the next week as a 21-point dog. Sure, the Miners have big losses to Louisiana Tech and Rice, but seven wins is a huge step for them.
Utah State has maybe had the more impressive season, finishing 9-4 in the MWC with a multitude of injuries. Stud quarterback Chuckie Keeton only made it three Games, his backup Darell Garretson only made it halfway through the year, and then Craig Harrison could only start one Game. And finally, that’s where current QB freshman Kent Myers comes in. He has improbably led the team to a 4-1 record in his starts with every other quarterback injured. Myers has done a heck of a job, completing almost 70% of his passes, while also rushing for almost six yards per carry.
The problem is that this kid is still raw and all of those wins came against teams with Four wins or less. In their regular season finale, a Game that decided the Mountain division, Boise State crushed the Aggies 50-19. USU will run the ball plenty behind their committee of running backs, in order to limit Myers in the air.
For UTEP to compete in this Game, it starts on the defensive end. If they can at least limit the Aggies’ rushing Game, this should be a close Game because it’s unlikely Kent Myers will break out for three or Four TDs.
The Miners don’t have the greatest offense, but they’ve played plenty of solid defenses throughout the year to give them some experience. Utah State has a good defense, allowing only 20.8 points per Game, and they could single-handily decide the Game no matter how Myers plays.
UTEP has had the same QB all year in Jameill Showers (12 TDs, five INTs), but this isn’t really a passing team. The Miners run the ball a bunch behind Aaron Jones (1,233 yards, 11 TDs) and Nathan Jeffery (513 yards, five TDs).
Utah State can be beat on the ground, but that was mostly against solid teams like Boise State, who have one of the best ground attacks in the nation. If the Aggies can stop the UTEP running Game, it will fall to UTEP’s QB and that’s not a good thing. Every time that has happened this season, the Miners couldn’t really Scoremuch and eventually got blown out (31-13 at Rice, 55-3 at LA. Tech, 58-28 at Kansas State).
The Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-Conference Games and 16-5 vs. a team with a winning record. The Miners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven overall, but only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
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