TCU
vs.
Texas
College Football
Pick with Analysis
11/27/14
On the outside, this looks like a normal Game that the No. 5 team in the country should have no problems with. TCU is on the road and they travel to a Texas team that has Four losses this year, all of those against the best teams in the Big 12. Because of that, the Horned Frogs are just -6.5 point favorites at 5 dimes and betonline.
It’s pretty straight forward for TCU right now to win the Big 12, they have to win their final two Games. And even then, the Frogs might lose in a tiebreaker to Baylor, who they lost to earlier in the season. TCU has not been great on the road this season, which makes this one interesting. They lost at Baylor, but also escaped with wins against West Virginia (31-30) and most recently Kansas (34-30).
No matter what their record is, or what some people say, the Longhorns are not going to be a walkover. They have steadily improved with Charlie Strong and boast probably the best overall defense in the conference. Texas has allowed just 36 points in its last three Games. Teams have had their worst offensive performances against them this year, most notably Baylor’s Bryce Petty when he passed for just 7-of-22.
These were two different teams last year, but Texas did come away with a 30-7 win on the road as a 3-point underdog. TCU has a lot on the line, but be wary of them on the road.
The main issue with Texas this year is that their offense isn’t good. against the better teams in the conference, the Longhorns scored seven points against Baylor and were shutout by Kansas State.
In his first year starting, sophomore QB Tyrone Swoopes has steadily improved and it showed in his last Game, throwing for 305 yards, two TDs and zero interceptions at Oklahoma State. Of course, that was after three straight Games of completing less than 52% of his passes for only two total TDs. Texas will need something from their ground Game in Malcolm Brown and Johnathan Gray.
TCU, despite giving up at least 30 points in each Conference road test this year is stout against the run. If the Longhorns can move the ball just a little on the ground, that could be vital for Swoopes.
For Texas, this is their final regular season Game of the season, which means this is going to be an intense night atmosphere in Austin.
This Game will likely be decided by TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin. He can make or break this Game. While the Frogs have a great running Game, Boykin has to play smart. On the year, he has 31 total TDs and five interceptions, but only three passing TDs in his last three Games and ran for a season-low two yards against Kansas last Game. Running back B.J. Catalon has missed the last two Games and is questionable for this one. Aaron Green has stepped in just fine in Catalon’s absence, so that shouldn’t be a huge issue.
Texas is playing for pride and a better bowl Game in this one which can’t be discredited, while TCU has its eyes on the bigger picture. Expect a good, intense battle between these teams.
The Horned Frogs are 7-1 ATS in their last eight vs. a team with a winning record and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 overall. The Longhorns are 5-2 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a winning record, but just 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home Games vs. a team with a winning road record.
We swore off Texas earlier this year. Each time we have backed them over the last two years, they let us down. The feeling here was always that Texas had the talent to compete with anyone in the nation. The problem has been the transition to Charlie Strong and ultimately, we should have known better. Coaching changes take time to gel.
Texas is a better team now, than they were when they lost to BYU 41-7 in week 2 (yes we had Texas in that one). They have kept some high powered offenses in check and have had competitive Games against UCLA and Oklahoma, held Baylor to 28 and knocked off West Virginia. All the pressure here is on TCU to keep pace with the top 4. Texas can end any speculation about TCU being in that top 4 with a win here. The Longhorns have nothing to lose and can use this Game as a stepping stone for next year.
We’ll take another stab at Texas here in what could be a Game decided late. Texas +6.5 (if you wait you might get +7 or better)