TCU
vs.
West Virginia
Big 12
Football Pick
with Analysis
11/1/14
Before the season, did anyone consider the matchup between these teams to be relevant in the Big 12 title race? It’s unlikely as both of them were rated as bottom-half schools in the preseason. Both teams were coming off 4-8 seasons and the powers of the Conference didn’t look likely to fold. That’s not the case anymore. The higher ranked Horned Frogs are -5 point road favorites at betonline sportsbook.
After laying 82 points last weekend, TCU is now the highest scoring team in the nation with 50.4 points per Game and it marked the Fourth time this year that they’ve hit at least 48 points in a Game. This offensive spark has kind of come out of nowhere, and if their defense can step up to previous levels, this is going to be a tough team to beat. Baylor already found that out, in a 61-58 comeback win. The Horned Frogs have allowed just 36 points total in the last two Games since giving up 61 to the Bears.
West Virginia’s offense may not be as good as TCU’s, but a part of the reason for their recent success has to be contributed to the defense. When you hold down Baylor for only 27 points, that says something. The Mountaineers have some iffy results like three-point wins over Maryland and Texas Tech, but it seems like the Baylor Game has pumped their confidence incredibly. They beat the Bears by 14 points and then beat Oklahoma State 34-10 last weekend in a Game that was rated as a pick ’em in most places.
The only two times that these teams have played, it’s been close. Last year, the Mountaineers came away with an overtime road win as 11-point underdogs. While TCU outgained WVU in total yards, it was the Mountaineers running Game that was the difference as they rushed for 148 yards compared to the Frogs’ 60 yards on 2.1 per carry. It’s funny to note that current TCU QB Trevone Boykin was actually the team’s leading receiver in that Game (11 receptions, 100 yards).
Morgantown is not an easy place to play and with how the Mountaineers defense has been playing lately, Boykin (24 total TD, 3 INT) and company will be hard-pressed to put 50-plus points on the board again. WVU’s defense stepped up big in the Baylor win stopping the run Game and holding Bryce Petty to 223 passing yards. If they can stop Petty, who’s to say they can’t stop Boykin? Granted, Boykin has put himself into Heisman talks with his play as of late.
On the other end, West Virginia keeps churning out yards and points led by QB Clint Trickett (17 TDs, 5 INTs). They have a great receiving duo in Kevin White (1,047 yards, 8 TDs) and Mario Alford, and also have a solid duo out of the backfield with Rushel Shell and Wendell Smallwood.
The Horned Frogs have covered in nine straight Games overall which goes to show how well they are playing. They have plenty more trends, but they all go back to the nine straight. The Mountaineers are surprisingly only 2-5 ATS in their last seven home Games and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 Conference Games. But again, this Mountaineers team is at a different level than previous ones, even compared to earlier in the season.
One stat that jumps off at the page at us in this one is turnover differential. TCU is 2nd in the nation at +12 while West Virginia is 119th at -9. In a Game that figures to be a wild back and forth battle, turnovers will no doubt be a factor and when you see a team at -12 and one of the worst in the nation in that category, common sense tells you that they’ll be the team more likely to lose that battle. Especially when the team they face is #2 overall.
Our model has TCU by 8 and that’s the way we’re going to play this one. TCU -5