Texas
vs.
Kansas State
Big 12
College Football
Pick – Analysis
10/25/14
A couple upsets later and Kansas State is suddenly leading the Big 12. However, the Conference is far from over considering KSU’s remaining Schedule. The Wildcats are back at home for this one as -10 point favorites against Texas at betonline sportsbook.
Kansas State has had two extremely close calls on the road this year and yet they’ve come out from both of them unscathed in Iowa State and Oklahoma. Their combination of defense and balanced offense has been enough to get them wins. After a couple home Games, the Wildcats have to close out the season with three road Games at TCU, West Virginia and Baylor. The odds of them remaining undefeated in the Conference are slim.
Texas is another story and still largely unpredictable. After a few nice performances from the defense against Baylor and Oklahoma, they suddenly imploded and allowed 45 points against Iowa State. Sure, the offense came around and won it for them, but the defense, that was once thought to be its strong suit, let the Cyclones mediocre offense go off.
The Longhorns won this matchup last season 31-21, but these are much different teams in different places with different coaches (for Texas). Before that meeting, Kansas State covered six straight Games in this matchup.
The reason Kansas State has been a better team to start off the year is the play of Jake Waters. He’s starting to figure things out in his first season as the full-time starter and he’s beginning to look a bit like Collin Klein. Waters is completing 65.1% of his passes to go with 16 total touchdowns and only three interceptions. He leads the team with 371 rushing yards. His favorite targets, Tyler Lockett and Curry Sexton, have helped out along the way.
It’s a wonder what Texas defense will show up here, but Waters and company should still have the advantage.
On the other end, the Longhorns finally showed some life against Iowa State, but now they’ll need to do that against a better defense. Kansas State doesn’t have a dominant defense, but it is one of the better ones in the conference.
Quarterback Tyrone Swoopes is the main player to watch here and he’s come alive somewhat in the past couple Games, throwing for 300 yards in back-to-back contests while also rushing for 145 total yards and two TDs in them. Texas has opened up their Game plan and let Swoopes run a little bit and it has helped. Will it be enough though? Running backs Malcolm Brown and Johnathan Gray will still get a healthy dosage of touches, as well.
We’ve made the statement already this season that we wouldn’t get involved in Texas Games. They have burned us going back to last season and have become (for us) one of the most unpredictable teams in college football. With that being said, we’ll offer two views on this Game. First, Our Score Prediction model has Kansas State on top by a score of 34-20 which is right in line with where betonline opened this Game at -13.
However, as an opinion only, we agree with the line move in the Longhorns favor. With the Texas offense coming alive coupled with the fact that the Kansas State defense isn’t exactly over powering (a yards per point number of 15.6) we think there’s room for a cover here in what is likely an entertaining close Game. Texas +10 or better