Tulane
vs.
Tulsa
College Football Pick
Week 1
8/28/14
Tulsa hosts Tulane to kick off the 2014 season looking to bounce back from a 14-7 loss at Tulane a year ago, as -3.5 point road favorites. The venue changes but the line stays the same as Tulsa is once again a -3.5 point favorite, this time at home. Those odds can be found at 5 dimes sportsbook.
Last year we used Tulane +3.5 as a Key Release. Our Score Prediction model predicted a straight up win for Tulane and all of the numbers we like to look at favored them as well. The play was a no brainer. Cashing a ticket on an underdog that wins straight up is routine for Our Key Releases.
These two teams had seasons that were way out of character last year. Tulsa, a team that won a 11 Games the year before and had winning seasons 7 of the previous 8 years, finished last season 3-9 overall. Tulane on the other hand, was coming off a 2-10 season the previous year and hadn’t had a winning season in years. They finished the year 7-6 and played in the New Orleans Bowl.
Now we have to figure out if last season was a fluke, or if these teams will continue on in the direction they went last season.
The problem with Tulsa’s season in 2013 wasn’t just that they lost. They weren’t even close in most of their losses. It’s not as if they were unlucky with several narrow defeats. They were just plain awful! So we need to tread lightly when considering them as a play for week 1 in 2014, which is what we are doing here.
When you compare the two programs, Tulsa gets the nod. In fact they have dominated Tulane. Heading into last years tilt, Tulsa had won the last 8 Games in the series by an average of 31 ppg, including 2012’s 45-10 route. The only other Game in the series took place in 1968, which was also the only other time Tulane beat Tulsa.
We seriously doubt that these two will reverse rolls this year and in the future. Winning programs win. Losing programs lose. Teams that dominate others historically, tend to also do so in the future. Sure, there can be a down season here and there for good programs just as there can be rare good seasons for losing programs, but generally speaking, history repeats.
Last years Game was fairly even. Tulsa had more first downs and more yards on the ground. Turnovers kill, and they turned it over 4 times last year. The key to this years Game may very well be the Tulsa defense. They return 9 starters to that unit and while they weren’t very good, they did hold Tulane to 14 points, their best defensive showing of the year.
That’s significant because the Tulane offense, which ranked 115th in the nation a year ago, figures to be just as bad if not worse in 2014. They lost their leading running back and their top receiver. Tulsa has the revenge motive working, they are playing at home, and they desperately want to improve upon last years dreadful record as this is a program used to winning.
This write up is being done several weeks before the Game. Currently the line is Tulsa -3.5. It does no harm to wait in this spot to see if you can grab -3 or better. In fact, that’s what we’re doing as we may even consider this one for a small Key Release if the number drops. For now, Tulsa -3.5