Mississippi State
vs.
LSU
College Football Pick
9/17/16
Hey, Mississippi State is in first place in the SEC West. This will probably be the only time we can say that all season as the Bulldogs took down South Carolina last weekend with no other team in the West having a Conference Game. Now in their first road Game, things will only get harder. LSU, still writhing from an opening loss to Wisconsin, is currently a -14 point home favorite at MyBookie.Ag.
There hasn’t been anything impressive about LSU in the early going. Despite being ranked No. 5 in the country ahead of the season, the Tigers still look like the same team from a year ago. They have a solid defense with a great running back, but mediocre at best quarterback play. That showed up in the loss to Wisconsin, and even in the Game against Jacksonville State, the Tigers weren’t that impressive in a 34-13 win.
On the other side, not much more can be said about Mississippi State after they gave up a lead and lost to South Alabama in the opener. To get a win against South Carolina, they turned to the ground via quarterback Nick Fitzgerald who ran for 195 yards, while the Bulldogs went for 290 as a team. But going on the road to LSU won’t be as easy.
When these teams met last year, Leonard Fournette had his way running for 159 yards and three touchdowns in a 21-19 win. It wouldn’t have been close except for Dak Prescott, who ended up throwing for 335 yards and almost bringing the Bulldogs back with 13 Fourth-quarter points.
Mississippi State’s rush defense absolutely destroyed South Carolina last Game, but again, LSU is at a much different level. Fournette sat out most of the last Game, but Les Miles said he’ll be ready for this one and that’s trouble for the Bulldogs. While backup Derrius Grice is good, he’s not Fournette. If Fournette doesn’t go, this line could easily drop a point or two.
But with Fournette or not, Mississippi State could stick around in this Game, much like a year ago, simply because LSU is still struggling to throw the ball. Brandon Harris was benched against J State with Danny Etling coming in and providing a mini-spark. After two three-and-outs led by Harris, Etling came in and went on to Scorethree touchdowns in the next three drives. Of course, this was against Jacksonville State.
Etling didn’t look like an All-American by any means, but at least he showed some competence throwing the ball. But now against the Bulldogs, he’ll find a little more resistance. And if Etling can’t get things going, Miss. State should be able to stick around with Fitzgerald running the show. In the early Games, Fitzgerald has been good enough for the Bulldogs, although in his first road Game as a starter that could change.
But either way, until LSU gets at least mediocre quarterback play, it’ll be hard to trust them against the spread, especially when they are favored by double digits against a solid MSU team. Miss State +14