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OSCAR DE LA HOYA VS STEVE FORBES

MAY 3, 2008

ODDS AND PREDICTION

May 3rd isn't just for the Kentucky Derby. It's also Fight Night! Oscar De La Hoya will step into the ring for the first time in a year to take on Steve Forbes at Home Depot Stadium in Los Angeles. We'll take a look at the odds for this fight and will offer our prediction as well.

Though Oscar denies it, this bout is nothing more than a tune up for a mega fight between himself and Floyd Mayweather in the fall. Forbes was handpicked by De La Hoya to be the opponent for this "home coming" of sorts. Oscar has not fought in Los Angeles in roughly 7 years.

The Odds on this fight present very little value, unless of course you feel Forbes can win. De La Hoya is listed as a 26-1 favorite over Forbes at sportsbook.com and the odds on the over/under on the number of rounds this fight goes is Over 9.5 -325 and Under 9.5 +250. The fight is favored to go over 9.5 rounds because Stevie Forbes has never been stopped. Not in the amateurs and not in the pros. So perhaps, the drama in this fight will be whether or not De La Hoya can stop Forbes in less than 9.5 rounds. If you think he can, and he does, you'll be rewarded nicely with a better than 2-1 payoff on your wager.

Forbes is no bum. He is a former Featherweight champion. He also appeared on the TV show The Contender and made it to the finals before losing to Grady Brewer. Keep in mind the Contender fights were fought at 150 lbs. Boxing experts are mostly in agreement that Forbes is simply too small to upset De La Hoya and is simply in a different class. There's "Contender" type fighters, and then there's world class fighters.

De La Hoya has been down the tune up fight road before. Back in 2004, Oscar had a tune up fight against Felix Sturm. It was a tune up for his fight against Bernard Hopkins. Oscar came in to the fight looking fat, out of shape and disinterested. It showed in the fight, as most ring side observers felt he lost the fight. All three judges scored the fight 115-113 and Oscar escaped with a close unanimous decision and went on to make millions fighting Hopkins.

Because of that scare, don't expect De La Hoya to take Forbes lightly. Even at the ripe old age of 35, an in shape, motivated Oscar De La Hoya should win easily against Steve Forbes. Perhaps the odds are right on the money in this one. If Oscar can't stop Forbes, it will be a unanimous decision. This is in Oscar's back yard. He will have a soccer stadium of support. Every single punch De La Hoya throws will invoke a roar from the crowd whether it lands or not, influencing the judges.

Give Oscar credit. Most tune up fights are complete jokes. Oscar has picked a former champion who has been recently active. But the bigger, stronger, smarter, and better fight will prevail here.

We'll go out on a little bit of a limb and make a small wager on De La Hoya to stop Forbes in 9.5 rounds or less at odds of +250 at sportsbook.com (maybe even higher elsewhere). We think Oscar will be plenty motivated and will want to put on a show for the home folks. Look for Forbes to be stopped for the first time ever.

Our Prediction - De La Hoya by TKO in round 7