KENTUCKY DERBY TRIFECTA - EXACTA - WIN PLACE SHOW
Derby Day is upon us! The field for
the 134th running of the Kentucky Derby is set and
post positions should play a factor in the outcome.
In this sub par crop Big Brown might be the best,
but he has many things to overcome and will be a bad
bet at 3-1. The field has a lot of value, and I
advise you to try and hit a monster trifecta, as
opposed to betting the favorite. Let’s take a closer
look at my top contenders and the plays I will be
making Saturday.
Winner: Colonel
John
This horse has been nothing short of sensational
this year. One of the first things I notice when I
look at this horse is his sire. Tiznow won the
Breeders Cup Classic twice, and that race is the
same distance as the Kentucky Derby. This tells me
he shouldn’t have trouble getting the distance. The
next thing I like is his last race in which he won
the Santa Anita Derby. He captured the race in a
good time, and used a style very similar to that he
will be using in the Kentucky Derby. Another race of
his that I like is the CashCall Futurity. He didn’t
get a very good trip, but he still split horses and
finished second.
Although he has never raced on traditional dirt, he
has displayed an affinity for Churchill Downs
through his workouts. NTRA.com reported the
following splits:
“:12, :23 1/5, :34 3/5, :46. He galloped out six
furlongs in 1:11 1/5. His final quarter was in a
snappy :23 1/5.”
The official workout reported was 5 furlongs in 57
4/5 B. Jockey Corey Nakatani is more than capable of
winning this race, though he has failed to do so
yet. Colonel John’s trainer, Eoin Harty worked under
Bob Baffert when the latter captured the Derby twice
in a row with Silver Charm and Real Quiet. Harty
knows what it takes to get the job done, and says
Colonel John is showing the same signs that Silver
Charm showed. The only thing that bugs me about this
horse is his low Beyers. The highest Beyer Speed
Figure he has ever obtained was a 95 in his last
race. While certainly not a lock, I really like
Colonel John’s chances to become the 134th winner of
the Kentucky Derby.
Second Place: Pyro
I had a hard time making a choice between Colonel
John and Pyro. The latter ended up being my choice
for second, but if you don’t like my pick to win
there is a lot to like about this one. Not only has
he ran a 100+ BSF twice, but he has a proven ability
to handle traffic. I’m willing to put a line through
the Bluegrass because of the Polytrack. Pyro, who is
a son of Pulpit, has shown he can chase good
fractions and the pace will probably be above
average. His post position is also an advantage
because he shouldn’t lose a ton of ground going into
the first turn. He will provide plenty of value at
6-1.
Others: Monba,
Court Vision, Denis of Cork, Big Brown, Adriano
These are the horses I would use with Colonel John
and Pyro in my exotics. Monba looked great winning
the Bluegrass and has plenty of experience. Court
Vision is a question mark in this race. He will race
with blinkers for the first time, and while he
appeared to be very skilled at 2, his races this
year have been lackluster. Garrett Gomez staying on
the horse is very encouraging. Denis of Cork has the
benefit of Calvin Borel, who won this race last year
with Street Sense. His Illinois Derby was a tragedy,
but his win in the Southwest and his works on the
track put him in contention. Big Brown may be able
to win, but I think he is more likely to run second,
third, or not at all. I like the way Adriano won the
Lane End under wraps, and the fact that Edgar Prado
chose him over Monba and Tale of Ekati.
Betting the
Kentucky Derby on $100:
$10 ($20 total)
Kentucky Oaks/Kentucky Derby Double: Pure
Clan/Colonel John, Pyro
$1 Trifecta ($40
total): Colonel John, Pyro/Colonel John, Pyro, Big
Brown, Monba, Court Vision/Colonel John, Pyro, Big
Brown, Monba, Court Vision, Denis of Cork, Adriano
$5 Exacta ($20 total):
Colonel John/Pyro, Court Vision, Monba, Big Brown
$6 Win-Place-Show ($18
total): Colonel John
$2 Long shot Win: Court
Vision
Check out our Kentucky Derby Coverage:
Kentucky Derby Picks
Kentucky Derby Contenders
Kentucky Derby Predictions
Kentucky Derby Matchups
The Most Exciting two Minutes in Sports
