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2008 KENTUCKY
DERBY PICKS
And so it begins….
With the Kentucky Derby now less than two weeks away and (in my
eyes) no bona fide favorite, there are tons of questions to be asked
and mounds of data to be analyzed. Even then, any number of
yet-unforeseen factors will contribute to how this race plays
out—post position, track condition, a bad step. This weekend’s
Lexington Stakes all but eliminated Tomcito, a proven dirt router
who should have gotten in rather than obvious distance- and
dirt-challenged opponents who happened to have more graded-stakes
earnings or haven’t won since their two-year-old campaigns. Ah,
well, the method of determining Derby starters isn’t perfect and
undoubtedly owners inflicted with “Derby fever” will run horses that
ought not, but there it is. At least War Pass has an excuse now for
not running (fractured left front ankle).
So, given my lack of a crystal ball, here’s my take on the
challengers as I see them right now—before Churchill workouts,
before the post position draw, and before knowing any last minute
additions or subtractions. My top five, in no particular order:
Of the original four colts on my mid-January watch list, only two
remain in the Derby: Tale of Ekati (Tale of the Cat-Silence Beauty,
by Sunday Silence) and Court Vision (Gulch-Weekend Storm, by Storm
Bird). Both are regally bred with plenty of stamina, both in the
sire and dam lines; Tale of Ekati’s dam is a half-sister to Sky
Beauty, while Court Vision’s dam is a half-sister to AP Indy and a
full-sister to Summer Squall. There is no doubt these two colts have
the breeding and proven ability to run well—it’s just a matter of
whether or not they are primed for a big performance. Watch their
workouts carefully—Court Vision posted a bullet 4f work (:46.20) at
Churchill on April 17, so he certainly appears moving in the right
direction. He also has already won over the Churchill surface,
taking the G3 Iroquois Stakes last October going 8f. Both Court
Vision and Tale of Ekati also have great trainers—Bill Mott and
Barclay Tagg, respectively—who no one can have problems rooting for,
as they are true horsemen, and not to mention Eibar Coa (Tale of
Ekati) and especially Garrett Gomez (Court Vision) are jockeys who
know how to ride in big races. Consider this: rumor is Gomez turned
down an offer to jump on Pyro after the G1 Blue Grass, and Gomez’s
agent is emphatic that his client is sticking with Court Vision.
Enough said.
Moving onto my top 5 list is the Californian Colonel John (Tiznow-Sweet
Damsel, by Turkoman). Other than having never run on dirt, this colt
has done nothing wrong, never finishing worse than second in six
starts, including in two large G1 stakes fields. Considering the
dirt success of his family, I don’t doubt he can make the transition
from the all-weather surface to dirt. Again, I rate him a serious
threat, and his Churchill workout will tell a lot. Trainer Eoin
Harty was Bob Baffert’s assistant for Silver Charm and Real Quiet’s
back-to-back Derby victories—it’s time he enjoyed that success
standing on his own. Veteran jockey Corey Nakatani broke his
collarbone in January, but returned to guide Colonel John to victory
in the G1 Santa Anita Derby; he’s had 13 Derby mounts, but has yet
to finish in the money. This may very well be his year.
While his pedigree may not suggest he can get 10 furlongs,
Visionaire (Grand Slam-Scarlet Tango, by French Deputy) appears to
me a horse that outruns his breeding. With Michael Matz’s careful
handling, he should be ready again come May 3. Not particularly
flashy, but this year has already seen a number of those times rise
and fall—it may very well take a consistently improving type to win
over this mediocre field of Derby contenders. While he recently
finished fifth in the G1 Blue Grass, Visionaire was moving well over
the track at the end. The chart reads: outrun five wide for seven
furlongs, came out twelve wide entering the stretch to secure room,
then was slowly gaining in the late stages. According to Keeneland’s
Trakus measurements, in the final segment of the race Visionaire
closed fastest of all (12.17) and overall travelled third farthest
(6052’), outdistanced only by Big Truck (6066’) and Stone Bird
(6068’) who finished 11th and 12th respectively. The shortest
distance was actually run by Miner’s Claim (6003’), followed closely
by Cool Coal Man (6008’) and Pyro (6010’)—very interesting! My
point? I’m not giving up on Visionaire at this point. Considering
the surface, I found his run encouraging. I also take it as a sign
that my very first online wager ever was on Visionaire’s first
allowance victory in January…
That day in January I also placed a $2 win bet on Smooth Air (Smooth
Jazz-Air France, by French Deputy) in the G2 Hutcheson Stakes—which
he won, paying $20.60. Since then, he’s run two big races, finishing
just a little over a length back in third behind Fierce Wind and Big
Truck in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, and second behind Big Brown in the
G1 Florida Derby. While I continue to question his ability to get
10f, I admire Smooth Air’s tenacity, and he too may outrun his
pedigree. And talk about a feel-good story—his 70-year-old trainer
Bennie Stutts Jr. has his first Kentucky Derby runner, 40 years
after emerging from his father’s shadow and gaining his trainer’s
license.
Come the first Saturday in May, I envision a Court Vision-Visionaire
exacta box, with Tale of Ekati up for third, but, again, so many
unknown factors. To recap, my top five (in no particular order):
1. Court Vision
2. Visionaire
3. Tale of Ekati
4. Smooth Air
5. Colonel John
Two horses I also really want to see run: the afore-mentioned
Tomcito (Street Cry-Inside or Outside, by Eastern Echo) and Eight
Belles (Unbridled's Song-Away, by Dixieland Band). Tomcito, bred for
stamina, has already proven himself in Peru—if you haven’t yet
watched those races, browse over to YouTube and check them out.
Impressive! (I admit being a sucker for a deep closer). He belongs
in this race far, far more than others. Hopefully enough defects
will permit a spot to open up for him. As for Eight Belles, I have
no doubt that, as in Australia and Europe, if American fillies
consistently ran against colts at two and three there would be no
sense of novelty when one of them attempts to run in the Kentucky
Derby or other big races. Eight Belles is a monster in size so
physically she belongs. Additionally, she’s one of the most raced
challengers (nine), including four straight victories this year
against equally talented and much-raced competition. And, I don’t
know about you, but I’m a sucker for Dixieland Band mares and their
offspring. If her 4f work (:46.60) at Keeneland on Sunday (2/39) is
followed up by an equally-impressive Churchill work, and she draws a
good post, I rate her a solid threat. I’m not as sold on Proud
Spell, though, against the boys. She’s physically far more slight,
and hasn’t been as dominate this year as last—she’ll have plenty to
handle with Bsharpsonata in the Oaks.
Who doesn’t thrill me? Z Humor for one. Other than his maiden
victory, the only win in seven subsequent outings for this one was
the dead-heat with Turf War in the overpriced Delta Jackpot over the
bullring track there. Minus the $400,000 he won that night, Z Humor
would be in the barn come Derby day, with $179,000 in graded stakes
earnings. Cowboy Cal is a turfster, through and through, and Monba
is nice on artificial surfaces…are they the horses to finally
realize Todd Pletcher’s Derby dreams? Emphatically, no! (I’m
partially taking my cue from Edgar Prado who jumped off Monba for
Adriano for the Derby). Monba did win (barely) an allowance race at
Churchill last November, but his performance in the G2 Fountain of
Youth is probably more revealing. His victory in the G1 Blue
Grass?—toss out, just like the other top finishers in that useless
race. The last time a Blue Grass winner won the Derby?—1991. At
least The Toddster has already said the Derby is not an option for
Behindatthebar.
Another toss-out for me is Recapturetheglory. Since the Illinois
Derby moved from Sportsmen’s Park to Hawthorne in 2003, it has
produced no Derby winner—and no top three finishers. This colt came
in to the Illinois Derby only a maiden winner (over the Hawthorne
course); his connections even desperately tried him on turf at the
Fair Grounds earlier this year. Thank god there’s a $300,000 race at
Hawthorne for Derby wanna-be’s, otherwise, he’d be (rightly so)
sitting home too; at least he may be a pace-setter. Cool Coal Man
ran gutsy in the G2 Fountain of Youth, but at heart he’s a miler. He
defeated Recapturetheglory in an allowance race at Churchill last
November, and then failed miserably in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club
against more accomplished foes. The topper, for me, is his poor
performance in the G1 Blue Grass; covering the second least
distance, he still finished way back in ninth. And why is Anak Nakal
Derby-bound? His three races this year have been abysmal, and he’s
not getting better. He worked 4f over the Churchill surface on April
18, and could only manage :49:40 (20/33)…does that sound like a
horse sitting on a big performance? Of course, with War Pass on the
sidelines (can we legitimately claim, headed to stud duty?), Nick
Zito is desperate.
Some of my more controversial bet-against selections include Pyro
and Big Brown. I’ve never been a Pyro fan (allergic to Steve
Asmussen, I think), but his Blue Grass performance can not simply be
written off as “not liking the surface.” It was too bad for that, so
I’ll take a moderately-firm stand against him come May 3. Ditto for
Big Brown. Talk about overhyped and under-raced! Beyond the fact
that cheater Dick Dutrow Jr. is just too smug for words, this horse
has documented hoof issues that don’t just go away—they can only be
babied, and the hard Churchill dirt surface isn’t forgiving.
Derby post positions are selected April 30.
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