Missouri
vs.
Texas A&M
College Football
Pick with Analysis
11/15/14
Missouri is still in first place in the SEC East, but last weekend’s bye didn’t go as planned. Texas A&M, who looked close to done for the season, pulled off an improbable upset of Auburn. Inconveniently for the Tigers, they travel to College Station this weekend with the Aggies as -5.5 point home favorites at 5 Dimes and betonline with a total of 59.
These two teams have been among of the most up-and-down teams in the country. Missouri went from dominating UCF, to losing to Indiana at home, to winning at South Carolina in the matter of three weeks. And then to cap it off, they were crushed 34-0 at home to a Todd Gurley-less Georgia. since then, the Tigers have clamped down and won three straight against some weaker football teams.
It’s been similar for Texas A&M, winning at South Carolina, and in their first five Games of the year. After that, everyone had them in College Football Playoff discussions, and then the losing started. They lost three straight Games, culminating in a 59-0 loss at Alabama. Then Kyle Allen took over at QB and didn’t do anything against UL Monroe in a too-close 21-16 win. And of course, last weekend they won 41-38 at Auburn.
Is it possible to figure out these teams? Unlikely. Missouri has had the edge in recent matchups, outside of when the Aggies were dominating in 2012. Last year, Missouri won 28-21 in a competitive Game that was decided by Missouri’s defense holding down Johnny Manziel and company.
Kyle Allen will start once again for the Aggies after throwing for Four touchdowns in the first half at Auburn. He was finding receivers Josh Reynolds and Malcome Kennedy with ease, while getting tons of time in the pocket. What won that Game was the rushing attack with three RBs averaging at least 5.4 yards per carry and all having at least 49 yards. If they can get the running Game going again, that will open up lanes for Allen.
Missouri is a tricky team and has shown stout defense at times. And surprisingly, they have maybe even been better defensively on the road.
The problem for Missouri lies in the offense that is extremely inconsistent. Maty Mauk is only completing 52.4% of his passes on the year, but seems to get things done. The good news for him is that Texas A&M has not played good defense all year. If Mauk can’t put points on the board in this Game, that’d be disappointing. Because of Mauk’s struggles, Mizzou will lean as much as possible on the running Game of Russell Hansbrough and Marcus Murphy.
What we know about the A&M defense, Missouri should be able to keep this close despite having Mauk at quarterback.
The Tigers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road Games, but only 1-4 ATS in their last five Games following an ATS win. The Aggies don’t have any positive trends as they lost five straight ATS before the Auburn win. Mizzou has covered in three of the last Four Games between these teams.
This would be the ideal spot for a letdown from Texas A&M. Coming off such a huge emotional win can be draining. Missouri is worth a strong look in the 1st quarter and 1st half in this one. Likewise, if the line edges back to 6 or better, we’d have to give the Tigers a look. This one shapes up as a competitive, back and forth football Game decided late. Missouri +6 or better as well as Mizu + for the 1st quarter and 1st half.