Ohio State
vs.
Maryland
Big 10
College Football
Pick – Analysis
10/4/14
Ohio State begins their Big 10 season this weekend with a trip to Maryland to take on the Terrapins. Each team has one loss with the Buckeyes losing to Virginia Tech and Maryland losing to West Virgina. Maryland QB CJ Brown is listed as questionable for this Game and will be a Game time decision. Currently Ohio State is a -8.5 point road favorite at sportsbook.ag with a total of 58.
The Terrapins have started the season surprisingly well with a 4-1 record. While a lot of that is due to their weak Schedule, they won 37-15 at Indiana last week as slight underdogs. Holding a team like the Hoosiers to 15 points is impressive in itself, but Maryland played with a backup QB for the second half of the Game and didn’t really skip a beat.
This will be the first ever meeting between these schools so there’s not much to go off of historically.
Maryland has seemingly had QB issues for the past few years, mainly due to injuries and now C.J. Brown, who started the season exceedingly well, is listed as a Game-time decision with a wrist injury on his non-throwing arm. His replacement Caleb Rowe came in and tossed for 198 yards and 2 TDs last week, but doesn’t bring the same type of mobility to the Game, and that will definitely hurt against the Buckeyes.
Brown actually leads Maryland’s running Game as well, so if he can’t go that is the immediate problem. Running backs Wes Brown (182 yards) and Brandon Ross (178 yards) haven’t done a whole lot in five Games so far. The Terps will have to Scorehere so whoever is at QB will eventually have to air it out and that means a lot of targets for Stefon Diggs and Deon Long.
Ohio State’s offense looks like it’s coming around, but we won’t know for sure until they face a respected defense. Barrett has thrown for 10 TDs in the last two Games, but against bad defenses. We’ll find out a few things about him in his first Big Ten road Game.
The Buckeyes will likely lean on running back Ezekiel Elliott (323 yards, 3 TDs) again as Maryland doesn’t have a great run defense. Expect Urban Meyer to try and rush the ball heavily with Elliott, Barrett and even Curtis Samuel. That should help Barrett in the road environment and it seems unlikely that Maryland will contain OSU on the ground.
The Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and only 1-5 ATS in their last six Games following a straight-up win. The Terrapins are just 1-4 ATS in their last five home Games and also only 1-6 ATS in their last seven Games following a SU win.
If we were to remove the names of the teams in this matchup and handicap this Game based on 2014 stats only, Maryland would be the play. Perhaps all Games should be handicapped at first without team names so as not to be iNFLuenced by a teams past and baggage. I say that because Maryland comes with some baggage.
When you look at Maryland when they step up in class over the last few years, it isn’t pretty.
2013
Florida State 0-63
Clemson 27-40
2012
Clemson 10-45
Florida State 14-41
2011
Clemson 45-56
Florida State 16-41
Notre Dame 21-45
Those are the best teams Maryland has played over the last few years and as you can see the results aren’t good. What makes Maryland an even more risky proposition for this handicapper is what happened a year ago. Last year the Terps started 4-0 and just like this year, that start came against weaker opponents. But their stats looked good and the 5th Game was against Florida State. The result? A 63-0 loss. A classic “paper tiger”.
So that’s the concern in a spot like this. There’s no proven track record of success when stepping up in class. The numbers say Maryland, but be careful here. Maryland +8.5