Ole Miss
vs.
LSU
SEC
College Football
Pick with Analysis
10/25/14
It didn’t take long for LSU to regain its spot in the Top 25 after wins over Florida and Kentucky. Ole Miss continues to take down everyone in its path, but things aren’t getting easier. The Rebels are -4 point favorites on the road in Baton Rouge at 5 Dimes sportsbook.
Mississippi is still No. 3 in the nation and despite some hard Games remaining, their Schedule is still somewhat favorable with Auburn and Mississippi State at home. The Rebels beat up on the Volunteers this past weekend, but their best win remains the Alabama Game.
LSU is still a trick team to predict which is why they have gone from Top 10 team to out of the Top 25 to back in the Top 25. It looks like the Tigers have figured out some issues against Florida (30-27) and Kentucky (41-3), but can the improved offense hold up in their next two Games against Ole Miss and Alabama? When faced with the better teams in the SEC, LSU hasn’t been up to the challenge.
The Game between these teams last year showed the return of Ole Miss to football relevance. They got a big home win 27-24 with a balanced offense, while intercepting Zach Mettenberger three times in the process.
This time around, the Tigers bring in a run-heavy attack led by backs Leonard Fournette (544 yards, 7 TDs) and Kenny Hilliard (353 yards, 6 TDs). Without a passing Game, it’s going to be extremely difficult for them to get points against the No. 1 defense in the SEC. Anthony Jennings is in at QB and is completing 50 percent of his passes to go with 7 TDs and 3 INTs. In the last two wins, he hasn’t thrown for more than 120 yards.
Ole Miss is giving up a nation best 10.6 points per Game, holding Alabama to 17 and Texas A&M to 20. LSU will have problems scoring, that’s likely.
The bigger question may be what Bo Wallace and company can do on the road against LSU. This isn’t a consistent offense and numerous times this year have gone stagnant for long periods. A lot of that is due to a mediocre rushing attack. While they do run it a lot, they only average 3.9 yards per carry as a team with Jaylen Walton leading the way with only 347 yards on the year. A big reason for the Rebels’ success has been the play of Wallace. He hasn’t turned the ball over in the last three Games which has been huge, and he’s also taken a big role in the running Game which has helped. He has 19 total TDs and 6 INTs on the year.
LSU’s defense was impressive against Kentucky, but against better teams hasn’t done that much. Even against Florida, they gave up 27 points.
The Rebels have covered in their last Four Conference Games and are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road Games. The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six home Games and 6-2 ATS in their last eight overall. Ole Miss has covered a crazy nine straight times in this meeting when playing at LSU, which makes the road team 14-3 ATS in the last 17 matchups between these schools.
This is a Game we’re still digging into. We’ll be back on Friday afternoon with a pick as this is being written on Tuesday morning. However, we’ll leave you with this. Ole Miss is for real. Their defensive yards per point number of 27.4 ranks #1 in the nation. You can’t have a ypp number like that 7 Games into a season without being for real. Not while playing in the SEC. That said, playing on the road at LSU on Saturday night will present Ole Miss with their stiffest test to date and that will be followed up with a Game against Auburn the following week. It’s gut check time in the SEC.
No pick on this one as we are using it as a Key Release!!