Oregon State
vs.
USC
College Football
Pick with Analysis
9/27/14
Oregon State is undefeated, but unimpressively. USC is coming off a bye week and have had to sit around thinking about how they lost to Boston College two weeks ago. With maybe a little extra motivation, the Trojans are -9 point favorites at home against the Beavers, down from an opener of -12 at 5 dimes sportsbook.
The Beavers were supposed to compete with the best teams in the Pac-12 this year, but that’s looking unlikely after too-close-for-comfort wins against Portland State and Hawaii to open the season. Sure, they beat San Diego State handedly last weekend, but this Game will be the true test.
USC had their sights set on big things before travelling to Boston College. They were coming off a road win at Stanford and riding a high. That high is no longer. Still, the Trojans have a great shot at winning the Pac-12 South, especially with how UCLA has looked so far.
The Trojans won this Game easily on the road last season 31-14. Their offense was too much, mostly on the ground with 242 rushing yards, but they also contained Sean Mannion as he threw three picks. With USC looking like a better overall team this year, it’s going to be an uphill battle for Mannion and crew.
Mannion’s numbers aren’t as outlandish as we’ve seen in previous seasons, with 903 yards, 4 TDs and 2 INTs. Remember, he had 37 passing touchdowns last year. The loss of a guy like Markus Wheaton and Brandin Cooks in the offense is evident. Victor Bolden has been solid, but he just hasn’t had the same effect as the other WRs mentioned. That’s part of the reason why Mannion’s numbers aren’t as good, as well as that Oregon State is running the ball more. Terron Ward (212 yards, 4 TDs) and Storm Woods (212 yards, 2 TDs) are seeing a healthy dosage, which is something that didn’t happen last year as the Beavers struggled to do much on the ground. That could play an important role in this Game.
Despite a loss to BC and only 13 points against Stanford, the USC offense is looking solid and more complete than a year ago. Most of that has to do with Cody Kessler, who is completing 71% of his passes for 8 TDs and zero interceptions. Nelson Agholor (212 yards, 3 TDs) is one of the best receivers around so that helps. But running back Javorius Allen has picked up where he left off last season already with 318 yards and a big 154 of them against Stanford. Sure, he struggled at Boston College, but it’s hard to see that happening against OSU.
The Oregon State defense has shown lapses this year, giving up 30 points to Hawaii, and those lapses will cost them against a team like USC. Mannion has to take care of the ball, or this Game could finish in line with last year’s 17-point win for the Trojans.
The Beavers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road Games, but only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 following an ATS win. The Trojans are 5-1 ATS in their last six home Games and 6-2 ATS in their last eight Conference Games. The underdog has covered in the last Four meetings between these schools, and the home team has covered in seven of the last nine.
It’s still early yet, just 3 Games into the season. However, Our number on this Game is USC by a couple of TD’s. With the week off and plenty of time to think about their loss to BC and to prepare for this one, we have to side with the Trojans here, especially after the significant line move. USC -9