Fresno State
vs.
New Mexico
Friday Night
College Football
Pick – Analysis
9/26/14
New Mexico will host Fresno State on Friday Night in a Game that can be seen on ESPN with an 8pm est. kick off time. Fresno State opened as a -4 point favorite at 5 dimes sportsbook and was quickly bet up to -5.5, even -6 at some books. Both starting QB’s are injured but listed as probable for this Game.
It’s easy enough to understand the early line move. New Mexico has been nothing short of dreadful for many years now. Coach Bob Davie took over a team that had gone 1-11 for three straight years and managed to win 4 his first year and 3 last year. Perhaps Davie is on the right track and will bring some respectability back to the program but it’s certainly a long road to hoe. Not so sure they are even close as the early results from this year are mixed. If anything, the Lobos appear to be down a notch from a year ago.
In comes Fresno State. Fresno was 11-2 last year and ranked as high as #15 in the nation. They won the Mountain West Title by defeating Utah State in the Title Game. Well, this year, there will be no top rankings for Fresno State as they started 0-3 out of the gate giving up 52+ points in each of their first three Games and weren’t even close on the scoreboard with their closest margin of defeat being 32 points! However, those first 3 opponents out of the gate were each stronger than any opponent they faced in all of last years regular season, opening against USC, Utah and Nebraska. They got into the win column last week by hammering Southern Utah 42-16.
We often mention emotional edges in Our write ups because they are very important in handicapping college football. These are just kids and emotion runs high. Being under the “Friday Night Lights” on National TV is a huge deal for both the program and these kids. It’s not a stretch to suggest that the future of a program like New Mexico can be impacted by the teams showing in this spot. It’s a heck of a lot easier to call a recruit and say “hey, did you see what we did on national TV last week when we beat a team that was #15 last year”?. Let’s face it, you lose 52-10, you’re not going to be many star high school players first choice.
With that in mind, we just don’t see the emotional edge making much of a difference here. How far could Fresno State have fallen in a year? They beat New Mexico 69-29 last year and 49-32 the year before. Unlike New Mexico, as a result of their past success, especially in high profile Games, Fresno can in fact recruit the better talent. Fresno lost one heck of a QB in Mr. Carr, who now plays on Sunday, but there’s a 40 point gap New Mexico has to close and as good as Carr is/was, he’s not worth 40 points.
Playing those tough first 3 Games could actually help Fresno here. No one likes to get pounded as they did, but that should make things much easier in a spot like this against a weaker opponent and will give the Bulldogs a chance to be the ones doing the pounding as they did last week to Southern Utah.
There’s just nothing here to suggest that New Mexico has closed that gap. Until then it has to be Fresno. Fresno State -5.5